干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11269-024-03794-z
	Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach
	Maia, Adelena Goncalves; Camargo-Valero, Miller Alonso; Trigg, Mark A.; Khan, Amirul
通讯作者	Maia, AG
来源期刊	WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0920-4741
EISSN	1573-1650
出版年	2024
卷号	38 期号:8 页码:2835-2850
英文摘要	Water resource modelling plays a crucial role in water resources management, but it involves many inherent uncertainties. This research investigates how epistemic uncertainties affect reservoir water budgets, projecting forward over a 30 year period using Monte Carlo simulation. It encompasses long-term variations in water demand, reservoir volume, precipitation, evaporation and inflow, while also considering siltation processes, reservoir dredging, population growth, reduced water consumption, and the hydrological impacts of climate change. The research focuses on fifty reservoirs in a semi-arid region of Brazil. The findings demonstrate that some reservoirs consistently met their demands with high level reliability, even within a wide range of uncertainty. Conversely, reservoirs with morphohydric indices indicating a tendency toward water scarcity are significantly affected by input variability introduced through uncertainty analysis. An empirical model is proposed to estimate the probability of these reservoirs achieving the reference volume reliability of 90%, while considering the uncertainties of: annual average inflow, reservoir maximum volume and annual demand. Sensitivity analysis reveals that reservoir inflow and demand are the two most influential variables affecting a reservoirs' ability to meet its demand. For over exploited reservoirs, variations in these variables strongly impact the volume reliability. This research provides a valuable tool for estimating the likelihood of reaching a 90% volume reliability, while taking into account the inherent uncertainties in the modeling process. Additionally, it identifies key variables that have the most influence on the reservoirs' ability to meet its demand. Notably, this study conducts uncertainty and sensitivity analyses in the context of physical and hydrological reservoir features for a large number of reservoirs, adding novelty to the research field.
英文关键词	Water resource modelling Water supply reservoirs Climate change Monte Carlo simulation Semi-arid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001171706800004
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405923
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Maia, Adelena Goncalves,Camargo-Valero, Miller Alonso,Trigg, Mark A.,et al. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach[J],2024,38(8):2835-2850.
APA	Maia, Adelena Goncalves,Camargo-Valero, Miller Alonso,Trigg, Mark A.,&Khan, Amirul.(2024).Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT,38(8),2835-2850.
MLA	Maia, Adelena Goncalves,et al."Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Reservoir Modeling: a Monte Carlo Simulation Approach".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT 38.8(2024):2835-2850.