干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-024-05087-2
	Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan
	Alsalal, Suheir; Tan, Mou Leong; Samat, Narimah; Al-Bakri, Jawad T.; Zhang, Fei
通讯作者	Tan, ML
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2024
卷号	155 期号:8 页码:7703-7720
英文摘要	A comprehensive analysis of regional climate changes is essential in arid and semi-arid regions to optimize water resources management. This research aims to evaluate the changes in temperature and precipitation across the Mujib Basin in Jordan, using the most recent Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model. Firstly, the performance of six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs) to reproduce historical temperature and precipitation from 1985 to 2014 was evaluated using observed climate data. The most suitable GCM was then bias-corrected using the linear scaling approach. The findings demonstrate that the EC-Earth3-Veg model could reasonably simulate the historical climate pattern of the Mujib Basin, with coefficient of determination (R2) values of 0.90, 0.83, and 0.65 for monthly Tmin, Tmax, and precipitation, respectively. Under both the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, Tmax is projected to increase by 1.4 to 3.9 degrees C and 1.6 to 6.8 degrees C, respectively, whereas Tmin increases from 1.4 to 3.4 degrees C and 1.6 to 6.4 degrees C. Furthermore, precipitation is projected to decrease by 4.61-23.2% at the end of the 21st century. These findings could help policymakers in formulating better adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of climate change in Jordan This is a crucial step toward becoming a climate-resilient nation.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001263318000002
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; RAINFALL ; VARIABILITY ; PERFORMANCE ; HYDROLOGY ; ACCURACY ; TREND
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405796
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alsalal, Suheir,Tan, Mou Leong,Samat, Narimah,et al. Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan[J],2024,155(8):7703-7720.
APA	Alsalal, Suheir,Tan, Mou Leong,Samat, Narimah,Al-Bakri, Jawad T.,&Zhang, Fei.(2024).Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,155(8),7703-7720.
MLA	Alsalal, Suheir,et al."Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 155.8(2024):7703-7720.