干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China

Arid

DOI	10.1038/s41598-024-68845-2
	Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China
	Li, Man; Zhang, Junjie; Tan, Chunping; Liu, Huancai; He, Qiaofeng
通讯作者	Tan, CP
来源期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
ISSN	2045-2322
出版年	2024
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Quantitatively predicting the impacts of climate change on water demands of various crops is essential for developing measures to ensure food security, sustainable agriculture, and water resources management, especially in arid regions. This study explored the water footprints (WFs) of nine major crops in the middle and downstream areas of Shule River Basin, Northwest China, from 1989 to 2020 using the WF theory and CROPWAT model and predicted the future WFs of these crops under four emission and socio-economic pathway (SSPs-RCPs) scenarios, which provides scientific support for actively responding to the negative impacts of climate change in arid regions. Results indicated: (1) an increasing trend of the overall crop WF, with blue WF accounting for 80.31-99.33% of the total WF in the last 30 years. Owing to differences of planting structure, water-conservation technologies, and other factors, the multi-year average WF per unit area of crops was 0.75 x 104 m3 hm-2 in downstream area, which was higher than that in midstream area (0.57 x 104 m3 hm-2) in the last 30 years; therefore agricultural water use efficiency in the downstream area was lower than that in the midstream area, implying that the midstream area has more efficient agricultural water utilization. (2) an initial increase and then decrease of crop WFs in the study area under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios by the end of the century, reaching their peak in 2030s which was higher than that from 1989 to 2020; with the maximum growth rates in the midstream area ranging from -0.85% in SSP5-8.5 to 5.33% in SSP2-4.5 and 29.74% in SSP5-8.5 to 34.71% in SSP2-4.5 in the downstream area. The local agricultural water demand would continue to increase and water scarcity issues would be more severe in the next 10-20 years, affecting downstream areas more. Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, crop WF values of the midstream and downstream regions will be 2.63 x 108 m3 and 4.22 x 108 m3 in 2030, respectively, which is significantly higher than those of other scenarios and show a long-term growth trend. The growth rate of the midstream and downstream regions will reach 44.71% and 81.12%, respectively, by the end of this century, so the local agricultural water use would be facing more strain if this scenario materializes in the future. Therefore, the Shule River Basin should encourage development of water-saving irrigation technologies, adjust the planting ratio of high water consuming crops, and identify other measures to improve water resource utilization efficiency to cope with future water resource pressures.
英文关键词	Water footprint Climate change Scenario mode Shule River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001293364100005
WOS关键词	INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT SCENARIOMIP ; PRODUCTIVITY ; PROVINCE ; IRRIGATION ; SCARCITY
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405587
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Man,Zhang, Junjie,Tan, Chunping,et al. Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Li, Man,Zhang, Junjie,Tan, Chunping,Liu, Huancai,&He, Qiaofeng.(2024).Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,14(1).
MLA	Li, Man,et al."Predicting the impact of climate change on crop water footprint using CMIP6 in the Shule River Basin, China".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 14.1(2024).