干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Investigating agricultural water sustainability in arid regions with Bayesian network and water footprint theories

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175544
	Investigating agricultural water sustainability in arid regions with Bayesian network and water footprint theories
	Zhang, Lingyun; Yu, Yang; Guo, Zengkun; Ding, Xiaoyun; Zhang, Jing; Yu, Ruide
通讯作者	Yu, Y
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2024
卷号	951
英文摘要	Water scarcity is a significant constraint in agricultural ecosystems of arid regions, necessitating sustainable development of agricultural water resources. This study innovatively combines Bayesian theory and Water Footprint (WF) to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). Water quantity and quality data were evaluated comprehensively by WF in agricultural production. This evaluation integrates WF and local water resources to establish a sustainability assessment framework. Selected nodes are incorporated into a BN and continuously updated through structural and parameter learning, resulting in a robust model. Results reveal a nearly threefold increase of WF in the arid regions of Northwest China from 1989 to 2019, averaging 189.95 x 108 8 m3 3 annually. The region's agricultural scale is expanding, and economic development is rapid, but the unsustainability of agricultural water use is increasing. Blue WF predominates in this region, with cotton having the highest WF among crops. The BN indicates a 70.1 % probability of unsustainable water use. Sensitivity analysis identifies anthropogenic factors as primary drivers influencing water resource sustainability. Scenario analysis underscores the need to reduce WF production and increase agricultural water supply for sustainable development in arid regions. Proposed strategies include improving irrigation methods, implementing integrated water-fertilizer management, and selecting drought-resistant, economically viable crops to optimize crop planting structures and enhance water use efficiency in current agricultural practices in arid regions. This study not only offers insights into water management in arid regions but also provides practical guidance for similar agricultural contexts. The BN model serves as a flexible tool for informed decision-making in dynamic environments.
英文关键词	Sustainable water management Bayesian Water footprint Irrigated agriculture Scenario assessment
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001299223600001
WOS关键词	BELIEF NETWORKS ; RIVER-BASIN ; TARIM RIVER ; BLUE ; MANAGEMENT ; GREEN ; MODEL ; UNCERTAINTY ; DECISION ; CONSUMPTION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405536
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Lingyun,Yu, Yang,Guo, Zengkun,et al. Investigating agricultural water sustainability in arid regions with Bayesian network and water footprint theories[J],2024,951.
APA	Zhang, Lingyun,Yu, Yang,Guo, Zengkun,Ding, Xiaoyun,Zhang, Jing,&Yu, Ruide.(2024).Investigating agricultural water sustainability in arid regions with Bayesian network and water footprint theories.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,951.
MLA	Zhang, Lingyun,et al."Investigating agricultural water sustainability in arid regions with Bayesian network and water footprint theories".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 951(2024).