干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174291
	Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time
	Falk, Martin Thomas; Hagsten, Eva
通讯作者	Falk, MT
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2024
卷号	946
英文摘要	This study contributes a first comparison of current and potential threats to Natural World Heritage Sites from climate change, as assessed by experts, when site and location characteristics (size, year of inscription to the World Heritage list, continent, climate zone and kind of site) are controlled for. The probability of a threat as well as its intensity is analysed. Another novelty lies in the use of data from the IUCN Conservation Outlook Assessment, covering all 245 Natural and Mixed World Heritage Sites across the world for three points in time: 2014, 2017 and 2020. The threat of climate change is broadly defined and includes temperature extremes, rising temperatures, disappearing glaciers, coral bleaching, droughts, desertification, and rising sea levels. Results based on a simultaneous Probit model with random effects show that the probability of actual and potential climate change threats increases over time, but with differences for size, kind of site and location. The probability that a threat is identified is highest for marine and coastal sites, and for those in Latin America, while it is significantly lower for sites on the African continent. Larger sites have a higher probability of being assessed as at risk and the severity of threats is found to be lower for recently inscribed sites. The rate at which the likelihood of a threat assessment increases is consistent for both current and future situations, while the probability of the most severe threat is larger for the current than the future period. A serious threat from climate change is assessed as highest for locations in the tropical monsoon (current period) or the tropical savannah climate (future period). Estimations also show that pure descriptive statistics or bivariate correlations may not correctly identify the risk or the dignity of a threat.
英文关键词	UNESCO Threat Marine Tropical climate zone Expert assessments Probit model
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001270677700001
WOS关键词	CONSERVATION ; PERCEPTIONS ; RISK
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405524
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Falk, Martin Thomas,Hagsten, Eva. Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time[J],2024,946.
APA	Falk, Martin Thomas,&Hagsten, Eva.(2024).Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,946.
MLA	Falk, Martin Thomas,et al."Probability and severity of climate change threats to natural world heritage sites vary across site specifics and over time".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 946(2024).