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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173824
	Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?
	Livneh, Ben; Bjarke, Nels R.; Modi, Parthkumar A.; Furman, Alex; Ficklin, Darren; Pflug, Justin M.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
通讯作者	Livneh, B
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2024
卷号	945
英文摘要	A mystery has emerged as to why patterns of increasing extreme rainfall have not been accompanied by similar levels of flooding, garnering growing attention given concerns over future flood risks. Antecedent moisture conditions have been proposed as the missing explanatory factor. Yet, reasons for moisture variability prior to flooding remain largely unstudied. Here, we evaluate the potential utility of precipitation intermittency, defined as the dry spell length prior to a flood, to explain the variability of flooding over 108 watersheds from 1950 to 2022. Flood magnitude is shown to be sensitive to intermittency, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions (PET/P > 0.84) and for basins with low soil field capacity (<0.31 m(3)/m(3)). Following extended dry spells >20 days, floods are only possible from the most intense storms, whereas a wider range of storms can produce flooding for shorter intermittency. The flood probability decreases by approximately 0.5 % for each additional day of dry spell, with overall flood probabilities being up to 30 % lower following extended dry periods. These results underscore the potential utility of precipitation intermittency for diagnosing current and future flood risks.
英文关键词	Flood prediction Precipitation intermittency Global change attribution Antecedent moisture conditions Land surface processes
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001261374600001
WOS关键词	SOIL-MOISTURE ; RAINFALL INTERMITTENCY ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE ; TRENDS ; VEGETATION ; WATER ; RISK ; MODELS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405512
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Livneh, Ben,Bjarke, Nels R.,Modi, Parthkumar A.,et al. Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?[J],2024,945.
APA	Livneh, Ben.,Bjarke, Nels R..,Modi, Parthkumar A..,Furman, Alex.,Ficklin, Darren.,...&Karnauskas, Kristopher B..(2024).Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,945.
MLA	Livneh, Ben,et al."Can precipitation intermittency predict flooding?".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 945(2024).