干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173432
	CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia
	Xiao, Yinmiao; Chen, Tiexi; Chen, Xin; Yang, Yang; Wang, Shengzhen; Zhou, Shengjie
通讯作者	Chen, TX
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2024
卷号	937
英文摘要	The Dryland East Asia (DEA) is one of the largest inland arid regions, and vegetation is very sensitive to climate change. The complex environment in DEA with defects of modeling construction make it difficult to simulate and predict changes in vegetation structure and productivity. Here, we use the emergent constraint (EC) method to constrain the future interannual leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) trends in DEA, under four scenarios of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model ensemble. LAI and GPP increase in all scenarios in the near term (2015-2050), with continued growth in SSP370 and SSP585 and stasis in SSP126 and SSP245 in the far term (2051-2100). However, after building effective EC relationships, the constrained increasing trends of LAI (GPP) are reduced by 43.5 %-53.9 % (30.5 %-50.0 %) compared with the uncertainties of the original ensemble, which are reduced by 10.0 %-45.7 % (4.6 %-34.3 %). We also extend the EC in moving windows and grid cells, further strengthening the robustness of the constraints, especially by illustrating spatial sources of these emergent relationships. Overestimations of LAI and GPP trends suggest that current CMIP6 models may be insufficient to capture the complex relationships between climate change and vegetation dynamics in DEA; however, these models can be adjusted based on established emergent relationships.
英文关键词	Emergent constraint CMIP6 LAI GPP Dryland East Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001247747000001
WOS关键词	GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS ; CO2 FERTILIZATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CARBON ; CYCLE ; VARIABILITY ; SENSITIVITY ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405506
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiao, Yinmiao,Chen, Tiexi,Chen, Xin,et al. CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia[J],2024,937.
APA	Xiao, Yinmiao,Chen, Tiexi,Chen, Xin,Yang, Yang,Wang, Shengzhen,&Zhou, Shengjie.(2024).CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,937.
MLA	Xiao, Yinmiao,et al."CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 937(2024).