Arid
DOI10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173432
CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia
Xiao, Yinmiao; Chen, Tiexi; Chen, Xin; Yang, Yang; Wang, Shengzhen; Zhou, Shengjie
通讯作者Chen, TX
来源期刊SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN0048-9697
EISSN1879-1026
出版年2024
卷号937
英文摘要The Dryland East Asia (DEA) is one of the largest inland arid regions, and vegetation is very sensitive to climate change. The complex environment in DEA with defects of modeling construction make it difficult to simulate and predict changes in vegetation structure and productivity. Here, we use the emergent constraint (EC) method to constrain the future interannual leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) trends in DEA, under four scenarios of the latest Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model ensemble. LAI and GPP increase in all scenarios in the near term (2015-2050), with continued growth in SSP370 and SSP585 and stasis in SSP126 and SSP245 in the far term (2051-2100). However, after building effective EC relationships, the constrained increasing trends of LAI (GPP) are reduced by 43.5 %-53.9 % (30.5 %-50.0 %) compared with the uncertainties of the original ensemble, which are reduced by 10.0 %-45.7 % (4.6 %-34.3 %). We also extend the EC in moving windows and grid cells, further strengthening the robustness of the constraints, especially by illustrating spatial sources of these emergent relationships. Overestimations of LAI and GPP trends suggest that current CMIP6 models may be insufficient to capture the complex relationships between climate change and vegetation dynamics in DEA; however, these models can be adjusted based on established emergent relationships.
英文关键词Emergent constraint CMIP6 LAI GPP Dryland East Asia
类型Article
语种英语
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:001247747000001
WOS关键词GROSS PRIMARY PRODUCTION ; EMERGENT CONSTRAINTS ; SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS ; CO2 FERTILIZATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CARBON ; CYCLE ; VARIABILITY ; SENSITIVITY ; PROJECTIONS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405506
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GB/T 7714
Xiao, Yinmiao,Chen, Tiexi,Chen, Xin,et al. CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia[J],2024,937.
APA Xiao, Yinmiao,Chen, Tiexi,Chen, Xin,Yang, Yang,Wang, Shengzhen,&Zhou, Shengjie.(2024).CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,937.
MLA Xiao, Yinmiao,et al."CMIP6 ESMs overestimate greening and the photosynthesis trends in Dryland East Asia".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 937(2024).
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