干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Impact of Glacial Shrinkage on Future Streamflow in the Urumqi River Source Region of Eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.3390/rs16142546
	The Impact of Glacial Shrinkage on Future Streamflow in the Urumqi River Source Region of Eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia
	Zhao, Weibo; Li, Zhongqin; Li, Hongliang; Xu, Chunhai; Mu, Jianxin; Yang, Yefei
通讯作者	Li, ZQ
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
EISSN	2072-4292
出版年	2024
卷号	16 期号:14
英文摘要	Understanding changes in runoff due to climate variations in glacier-dominated headwaters is key to managing water resources and dryland watersheds effectively and rationally. The continuous glacier shrinkage caused by climate warming has significantly impacted the water supply and ecological systems in the vast arid regions of Central Asia, attracting extensive public concern. The study results indicate an increase in total runoff at the Urumqi River source region during both the baseline (1997-2016) and mid-century (2040-2059) periods, encompassing rain, glacier meltwater, and snowmelt components. Compared to the baseline period, the temperature increases by the mid-century under the three climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85) range from 0.98 to 1.48 degrees C. In this region, during the period from 1997 to 2016, glacier meltwater was the dominant component of runoff, comprising 42.10-43.79% of the total, followed by snowmelt at 29.64-30.40% and rainfall contributions of 26.56-27.49%. Additionally, glacier storage in this typical catchment responds quickly to temperature fluctuations, significantly impacting runoff. The Urumqi River source region's runoff exhibits heightened sensitivity to these temperature shifts compared to precipitation effects. We hypothesized three glacier coverage scenarios: unchanged at 100% glaciation, reduced by half to 50%, and fully retreated to 0% glaciation. Analysis of these scenarios demonstrated that glaciers are pivotal in runoff formation. Under the SSP1-26, SSP2-45, and SSP5-85 climate scenarios, glaciers contributed additional runoff increases of 51.61%, 57.64%, and 62.07%, respectively. Generally, glaciers play a critical role in supplying water in dry areas. Thus, accurately forecasting future water resource shifts in high-altitude glacier regions is crucial for downstream water resource management and utilization.
英文关键词	glacier hydrology climate change HBV-Light model CMIP6 runoff
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001277396900001
WOS关键词	DEGREE-DAY MODEL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; NO. 1 ; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE ; MASS-BALANCE ; RUNOFF ; PREDICTION ; TIANSHAN ; HEADWATERS ; CATCHMENT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/405311
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Weibo,Li, Zhongqin,Li, Hongliang,et al. The Impact of Glacial Shrinkage on Future Streamflow in the Urumqi River Source Region of Eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia[J],2024,16(14).
APA	Zhao, Weibo,Li, Zhongqin,Li, Hongliang,Xu, Chunhai,Mu, Jianxin,&Yang, Yefei.(2024).The Impact of Glacial Shrinkage on Future Streamflow in the Urumqi River Source Region of Eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia.REMOTE SENSING,16(14).
MLA	Zhao, Weibo,et al."The Impact of Glacial Shrinkage on Future Streamflow in the Urumqi River Source Region of Eastern Tien Shan, Central Asia".REMOTE SENSING 16.14(2024).