干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10980-024-01877-1
	Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000
	Qi, Wenhua; Hu, Xiaomei; Bai, Hao; Yusup, Asadilla; Ran, Qinwei; Yang, Hui; Wang, Haijun; Ao, Zurui; Tao, Shengli
通讯作者	Tao, SL
来源期刊	LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
ISSN	0921-2973
EISSN	1572-9761
出版年	2024
卷号	39 期号:4
英文摘要	ContextMongolian Plateau is one of the largest contingent arid and semi-arid regions of the world. Rivers on the plateau provide vital water for millions of indigenous Mongolian people and numerous endangered wildlife, but are increasingly disturbed by climate change and human activities. Yet, long-term changes in river runoff across the plateau remain poorly studied due to data unavailability.ObjectivesThis study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in gauged river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau, identify drivers of the observed changes, and evaluate CMIP6 models' performance in simulating historical runoff changes across the plateau.MethodsWe compiled possibly the largest database of long-term (20 - 71 years) river runoff for the plateau comprising measurements over 30 major rivers. Statistical analyses were conducted to assess trends in river runoff and correlations between runoff and climatic variables. Additionally, we applied the Budyko curve framework to identify the influence of human activities on river runoff in specific basins. Furthermore, we compared ground-measured runoff data with simulations from CMIP6 models to evaluate the ability of CMIP6 models to replicate runoff dynamics in typical arid and semi-arid regions.ResultsWe observed pervasive and abrupt reduction in runoff in 21 out of the 30 rivers within 5 years before or after the year of 2000. Variations in river runoff were most significantly caused by changes in total precipitation (TP). In particular, 27 rivers experienced abrupt TP changes around 2000, and there was a significant positive correlation between annual fluctuations in TP and river runoff for 18 rivers. In addition to climate factors, the influence of human activities was identified in certain basins. The CMIP6 simulations failed to capture the abrupt changes in runoff occurred pervasively across the plateau around 2000.ConclusionsAround 2000, major rivers on the Mongolian Plateau, especially in Inner Mongolia, experienced runoff declines, primarily due to TP changes. Human activities like dam construction and water diversion further influenced local runoff. CMIP6 historical runoff simulations were inaccurate across the plateau, highlighting the difficulty of simulating river runoff in this critical region. Our study could contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the water resource changes on the Mongolian Plateau, with direct implications for enhancing ecological conservation and management practice.
英文关键词	Mongolian Plateau Abrupt runoff change CMIP6 Arid and semi-arid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001189236600001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WATER-RESOURCES ; VEGETATION ; IMPACTS ; POPULATION ; STREAMFLOW ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; ENERGY ; YIELD
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geography, Physical ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography ; Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404862
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qi, Wenhua,Hu, Xiaomei,Bai, Hao,et al. Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000[J],2024,39(4).
APA	Qi, Wenhua.,Hu, Xiaomei.,Bai, Hao.,Yusup, Asadilla.,Ran, Qinwei.,...&Tao, Shengli.(2024).Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000.LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY,39(4).
MLA	Qi, Wenhua,et al."Decreased river runoff on the Mongolian Plateau since around 2000".LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY 39.4(2024).