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DOI	10.2166/wcc.2024.192
	Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought return periods in a Mediterranean arid region, the center of Morocco
	Abdessamad, Hadri; Ndiaye, Assane Salame; Khadir, Lahcen; Jaffar, Oumar; Zamzami, Hamza Ait; Mahdi El Khalki, El; Amazirh, Abdelhakim; Bouchaou, Lhoussaine; Chehbouni, Abdelghani
通讯作者	Abdessamad, H
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN	2040-2244
EISSN	2408-9354
出版年	2024
英文摘要	Morocco has recently witnessed a surge in drought occurrences, leading to considerable socioeconomic damages. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) at 3- and 12-month timescales was employed to assess spatiotemporal drought characteristics across the Marrakech-Safi arid region. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were adopted to assess SPI trends. Furthermore, the Gumbel Copula was employed to construct the joint distribution function of three drought variables: duration, severity, and intensity. The spatial distribution of drought return period for different scenarios was carried out. Results revealed notable interannual fluctuations of wet and drought cycles, with the driest years being 1983 and 2005 and a mixture of positive and negative trends of SPI-12 and SPI-3 over the 1972-2018 period. Nevertheless, statistical significance was observed in only 50% of the SPI-12 trends and 27% of the SPI-3 trends. The drought severity in the region was highest in the plain area, with droughts lasting 6-20 months for 75% of all drought events for SPI-12. The coastal strip exhibited the lowest drought recurrences. Furthermore, dry periods exhibited greater temporal variability over shorter timescales. Finally, trivariate return periods of drought events were the longer, averaging 93 months for SPI-12.
英文关键词	copulas drought Morocco return periods risk analysis standardized precipitation index
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001280623900001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; COPULA ; BASIN
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404760
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abdessamad, Hadri,Ndiaye, Assane Salame,Khadir, Lahcen,et al. Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought return periods in a Mediterranean arid region, the center of Morocco[J],2024.
APA	Abdessamad, Hadri.,Ndiaye, Assane Salame.,Khadir, Lahcen.,Jaffar, Oumar.,Zamzami, Hamza Ait.,...&Chehbouni, Abdelghani.(2024).Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought return periods in a Mediterranean arid region, the center of Morocco.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
MLA	Abdessamad, Hadri,et al."Spatio-temporal analysis of meteorological drought return periods in a Mediterranean arid region, the center of Morocco".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE (2024).