干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2024.101661
	How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?
	Wu, Fan; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Xing; Ren, Liliang; Yuan, Shanshui; Yuan, Fei; Jiang, Shanhu; Liu, Yi; Zhang, Hanshuo
通讯作者	Yang, XL
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
EISSN	2214-5818
出版年	2024
卷号	51
英文摘要	Study region: Global aridity zones. Study focus: Evaluating drought under the impact of climate change is crucial for ensuring sustainable development and ecological security, especially in global arid zones where the environment is vulnerable to global warming. However, there are large uncertainties in evaluating the future drought risk of arid zones due to uncertainties within climate projections and the use drought-related indices that may not be appropriate for all assessments. Therefore, under the precondition of bias correction applied to CMIP6 data, the drought detection capability of drought indices calculated from multimodel ensemble was evaluated. Based on the drought index with the strongest detection capability and the Reliability-Resilience-Vulnerability (RRV) framework, the future drought risk in global arid zones were predicted. New hydrological insights for the region: Among the drought indices calculated from CMIP6 historical simulations, SPEI offered the best representation of drought patterns. According to the CMIP6 future projections, SSP1-2.6 can effectively mitigate the impact of future drought risk compared with the historical period. In scenarios with higher emissions, the equatorial to northern latitude 30 degrees region will experience more severe drought. For SSP5-8.5, the areas in the arid zones where drought risk deteriorates significantly are several times larger than in other scenarios. To mitigate drought risks, most nations should support a greener, low-emission approach in line with sustainable development goals, reducing the risk of drought-related damage.
英文关键词	Climate change CMIP6 climate models Optimal drought index Drought risk RRV Global arid zones
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001158198600001
WOS关键词	SEMIARID CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; VULNERABILITY ; RELIABILITY ; RESILIENCE ; MODEL ; TEMPERATURE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; INDEX ; UNCERTAINTY
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404615
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, Fan,Yang, Xiaoli,Yuan, Xing,et al. How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?[J],2024,51.
APA	Wu, Fan.,Yang, Xiaoli.,Yuan, Xing.,Ren, Liliang.,Yuan, Shanshui.,...&Zhang, Hanshuo.(2024).How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,51.
MLA	Wu, Fan,et al."How will drought evolve in global arid zones under different future emission scenarios?".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 51(2024).