干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projection of snowfall and precipitation phase changes over the Northwest China based on CMIP6 multimodels

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131743
	Projection of snowfall and precipitation phase changes over the Northwest China based on CMIP6 multimodels
	Xu, Min; Hou, Zhikang; Kang, Shichang; Wu, Xiaodong; Han, Haidong; Wang, Pengshou
通讯作者	Xu, M
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	641
英文摘要	The change of precipitation phase could have profound influence on water cycle and ecological environment in Northwest China (NWC). It has been observed that snowfall is inclined to transition into rainfall under climate warming. However, the evolution process of precipitation phase in the future over the NWC remains poorly understanding. In this study, the performance of snowfall simulated by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is evaluated by results of observation-based rain/snow separation, subsequently analyzing the changes in snowfall and precipitation phase under different climate scenarios over the NWC. The results indicated that most of CMIP6 models overestimate snowfall while underestimate the Snowfall to Precipitation Ratio (SPR) over the NWC. The performance of CMIP6 models is poorer in high-altitude mountainous region but relatively more robust in low-altitude areas. Superior performance of five models are selected for analysing changes of snowfall and precipitation phase in the future. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the trend of changes in snowfall is not obviously in the future. Conversely, snowfall is projected to decline at rates of -1.04 mm & sdot;10a-1 and -2.94 mm & sdot;10a-1 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, with significant declines in highaltitude zones. The SPR will decrease at rates of -0.19 %& sdot;10a-1, -0.64 %& sdot;10a-1, and -1.50 %& sdot;10a-1 under SSP12.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenario, respectively. The magnitudes in changes of snowfall and SPR show significant differences across sub-regions in the future, with low-altitude areas exhibiting upward trends in snowfall and SPR under certain conditions. Winter snowfall in the future shows an increased trend, while declines are observed in spring and autumn snowfall overall, with notable disparities between scenarios. The correlation between snowfall biases and biases of temperature and precipitation indicate that temperature is a pivotal factor contributing to precipitation phase bias. The findings are helpful for enhancing the simulation precision of hydrological processes and providing scientific strategies for future water resource management over the NWC.
英文关键词	Northwest China Snowfall Precipitation phase Evaluation CMIP6
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001294358500001
WOS关键词	ARID REGION ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; TEMPERATURE ; EVENTS ; DECREASE ; TRENDS ; RATIO ; ASIA
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404608
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, Min,Hou, Zhikang,Kang, Shichang,et al. Projection of snowfall and precipitation phase changes over the Northwest China based on CMIP6 multimodels[J],2024,641.
APA	Xu, Min,Hou, Zhikang,Kang, Shichang,Wu, Xiaodong,Han, Haidong,&Wang, Pengshou.(2024).Projection of snowfall and precipitation phase changes over the Northwest China based on CMIP6 multimodels.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,641.
MLA	Xu, Min,et al."Projection of snowfall and precipitation phase changes over the Northwest China based on CMIP6 multimodels".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 641(2024).