干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131736
	Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin
	Zou, Minzhong; Kang, Shaozhong; Niu, Jun; Huang, Hangxing; Deng, Yaoyang; Lu, Hongna
通讯作者	Kang, SZ
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	640
英文摘要	The escalation of water scarcity poses a significant challenge to the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in arid regions, with climate change further amplifying the unpredictability of water resources for agricultural purposes. Despite the critical nature of this issue, there is a lack of research identifying effective adaptation strategies and establishing water-suitable thresholds for agricultural development. This study modified a conventional approach for estimating irrigation water use (IWU) in the Heihe agricultural area of Northwest China, integrating the distributed hydrological components of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. It modeled IWU and surface water availability across three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and conducted an extensive analysis of agricultural water scarcity for the period 2021-2050. The study established threshold levels for water-suitable agricultural development based on predicted local water resource conditions. Findings suggested a trend towards warmer and wetter conditions in the Heihe agricultural area over the next three decades. The anticipated average IWU, predicted by five general circulation models (GCMs), was expected to reach 26.785 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP2.6), 26.827 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP4.5), and 26.865 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP8.5). These projections indicated an increase of 0.815 x 108 8 m3, 3 , 0.857 x 108 8 m3, 3 , and 0.895 x 108 8 m3, 3 , respectively, in comparison to the historical period spanning from 1985 to 2014. Streamflow was anticipated to diminish by 0.28 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP2.6), 0.46 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP4.5), and 0.23 x 108 8 m3 3 (RCP8.5). The predicted agricultural water scarcity index (WSI) was 1.764 (RCP2.6), 1.789 (RCP4.5), and 1.763 (RCP8.5), indicating a worsening of agricultural water use shortages due to climate change. The study identified controlling the scale of cultivation as the most effective adaptation strategy, recommending that water-suitable agricultural reclamation in the Heihe agricultural area be confined to 25 x 104 4 ha. This research offers a comprehensive assessment of future water security in an arid inland basin, providing valuable insights into the sustainable development of global irrigated agriculture and adaptation strategies in response to climate change.
英文关键词	Irrigation water use Agricultural water scarcity SWAT model RCP scenarios Adaptation strategies
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001289291300001
WOS关键词	HEIHE RIVER-BASIN ; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSES ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; LAND-USE ; REGION ; CHINA ; MODEL ; PRODUCTIVITY ; REQUIREMENT ; RESOURCES
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404605
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zou, Minzhong,Kang, Shaozhong,Niu, Jun,et al. Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin[J],2024,640.
APA	Zou, Minzhong,Kang, Shaozhong,Niu, Jun,Huang, Hangxing,Deng, Yaoyang,&Lu, Hongna.(2024).Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,640.
MLA	Zou, Minzhong,et al."Water-suitable reclamation can mitigate the amplified agricultural water stress driven by climate change in arid inland basin".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 640(2024).