干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131384
	Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model
	Zhou, Gang; Zhao, Qiudong; Zhang, Shiqiang; Zhang, Dahong; Li, Chao
通讯作者	Zhang, SQ
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	637
英文摘要	Snowmelt flood forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource management and utilization in arid regions. However, the accuracy of current snowmelt flood forecasts falls short of requirements due to complex mountainous terrain and limited observational data. In this study, We conducted a snowmelt flood simulation and forecasting experiment in a mountainous watershed in northern Xinjiang. First, we used site observations, ERA5land reanalysis data and WorldClim data to produce historical meteorological forcing, calibrated the VIC-CAS model and improved routing model using historical observed runoff data, and conducted a detailed simulation of the hourly snowmelt flood process in the basin. Then, the latest grid forecast weather product developed by the China Meteorological Administration was integrated into the system to conduct a rolling forecast test of the snowmelt floods in the next 72 h during the snowmelt period in 2023. The remotely sensed snow cover and the freezing level measured by the sounding balloon were assimilated into the model in real time to correct the deviation of runoff simulation. The results show that during the model calibration period, the KGE of the simulated monthly runoff in the Kayertes River basin (KRB) from 2006 to 2011 was 0.83 and the NSE was 0.86. In the continuous hourly runoff simulation during the 2022 snowmelt period, the model well captured the intraday fluctuations of snowmelt runoff in the KRB, with the daily peak flow error within +/- 20 % and the peak occurrence time controlled within +/- 4 h. In the rolling forecast test in 2023, the daily peak flow error is within +/- 20 % (the peak occurrence error during the peak period is even controlled within +/- 5 %), and the peak occurrence time is within +/- 4 h. Real-time assimilation of freezing level measured by sounding balloons and remotely sensed snow cover can effectively correct the deviations in simulated temperature and snow cover. This study can provide insights for runoff prediction in other high -altitude mountainous areas where data are scarce.
英文关键词	Snowmelt floods Rolling forecasts Snow cover Freezing level VIC-CAS model Northern Xinjiang
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001244342000001
WOS关键词	BLOWING SNOW ; RIVER-BASIN ; GENETIC ALGORITHM ; TIBETAN PLATEAU ; RUNOFF ; WATER ; CALIBRATION ; PRAIRIE ; CLIMATE ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404592
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhou, Gang,Zhao, Qiudong,Zhang, Shiqiang,et al. Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model[J],2024,637.
APA	Zhou, Gang,Zhao, Qiudong,Zhang, Shiqiang,Zhang, Dahong,&Li, Chao.(2024).Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,637.
MLA	Zhou, Gang,et al."Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 637(2024).