干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia

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DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131341
	An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia
	Das, Subhankar; Jain, Manoj Kumar; Gupta, Vivek
通讯作者	Jain, MK
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	637
英文摘要	Water erosion has emerged as a significant global environmental challenge, particularly in South Asia, recognized as one of the regions hardest to hit globally by climate change. This study aims to identify the potential erosion hotspots in South Asia and to assess areas under risk in the future due to climate and land use change scenarios. We utilized the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an empirical erosion model, to estimate erosion for both historical and future periods, considering two distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). The baseline model predicts a mean water erosion rate of 10.6 t. ha(-1). year(-1) in South Asia, with more than 30 t. ha(-1). year(-1) recorded for 6.3 % of the total land area. Notably, Bangladesh and Nepal exhibit significantly higher erosion rates than other South Asian countries. Further, our projection indicates an + 10 % increase in erosion rates during the near future (2021-2040) under SSP585 compared to the historical estimates. A substantial rise of approximately + 31 % and + 39 % in water erosion rates in South Asia is anticipated during the far future periods of 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 under SSP585. At the country level, Bangladesh (+42 %), Bhutan (+108 %), and Nepal (+70 %) are expected to experience substantial increases in erosion rates during the 2081-2100 period, with India projecting a + 38 % increase. Additionally, a significant + 35 % expansion in the spatial extent of high erosion areas (>30 t. ha(-1). year(-1)) is foreseen in 2081-2100 under SSP585. Furthermore, under the low climate change scenario (SSP126), the impact on the erosion rates is minimal, while under SSP585, a substantial increase in erosion rates is anticipated. Regions such as Southern India, the arid and semi-arid areas near the India-Pakistan border, and the Himalayan foothills are identified as hotspots for significant changes in erosion rates. Acknowledging a certain level of uncertainty, our study provides valuable insights into erosion risk areas in South Asia and their plausible future impacts due to climate and land use changes. This information can assist policymakers in South Asian countries in developing national-level strategies for soil conservation and climate resilience.
英文关键词	Water erosion South Asia Climate change Land use change USLE RUSLE CMIP6
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001294182500001
WOS关键词	SOIL-EROSION ; SEDIMENT YIELD ; RAINFALL EROSIVITY ; RIVER-BASIN ; GLOBAL APPLICABILITY ; PRECIPITATION DATA ; MANAGEMENT FACTOR ; STEEPNESS FACTOR ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; LS-FACTOR
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404591
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Das, Subhankar,Jain, Manoj Kumar,Gupta, Vivek. An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia[J],2024,637.
APA	Das, Subhankar,Jain, Manoj Kumar,&Gupta, Vivek.(2024).An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,637.
MLA	Das, Subhankar,et al."An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 637(2024).