干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The structural equation modeling constructed for runoff change attribution analysis outperforms traditional methods

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131317
	The structural equation modeling constructed for runoff change attribution analysis outperforms traditional methods
	Wang, Qingzheng; Shao, Wenyan; Guan, Qingyu; Sun, Yunfan; Du, Qinqin; Zhang, Erya; Yan, Yong; Yang, Xinyue
通讯作者	Guan, QY
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	636
英文摘要	Recently, with the increasing global warming and intensity of human activities, runoff has significantly decreased. This has had a severe impact on water resources development and utilization, as well as ecological and environmental construction. To understand hydrological cycles and promote sustainable utilization of water resources, it is crucial to conduct attribution analysis of runoff changes. This study employed traditional models, including empirical statistics, elasticity coefficients, hydrological modeling, and introduced a simple and efficient model - structural equation modeling (SEM) - to quantify the impact of various factors on runoff changes. The findings revealed a notable decreasing trend in natural runoff in the Shiyang River from 1960 to 2020, while precipitation, snowmelt, potential evapotranspiration (ET0), and temperature exhibited increasing trends. The integrated the results from multiple models highlighted that human activities emerged as the primary driver influencing runoff changes. From 1972 to 2020, the factors contributing to runoff reduction were ranked in the order: water withdrawal (50 %) > LUCC (20 %) > ET0 (16 %) > temperature (8 %). Factors contributing to runoff increase were ranked: precipitation = water diversion project (20 %) > snowmelt (6 %). The impact of reservoir regulation on runoff initially exhibited a negative correlation (impact rate of 10 %) and later turned positive (impact rate of 6 %). The SEM model, employed for runoff change attribution analysis, demonstrated a good fit and was consistent with results obtained from the SWAT model. Compared to traditional methods, SEM not only allowed for quantitative analysis of the factors' impact on runoff but also explored the interactions between factors and the direct and indirect effects of factors on runoff. This study introduces innovative methods for the attribution analysis of runoff changes, offering valuable insights crucial for the ecological sustainable development of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.
英文关键词	Runoff Human activity Climate change Attribution analysis SEM
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001284308900001
WOS关键词	SHIYANG RIVER-BASIN ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DRIVING FACTORS ; IMPACT ; STREAMFLOW ; REGION ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY ; PLATEAU ; RISKS
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404585
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Qingzheng,Shao, Wenyan,Guan, Qingyu,et al. The structural equation modeling constructed for runoff change attribution analysis outperforms traditional methods[J],2024,636.
APA	Wang, Qingzheng.,Shao, Wenyan.,Guan, Qingyu.,Sun, Yunfan.,Du, Qinqin.,...&Yang, Xinyue.(2024).The structural equation modeling constructed for runoff change attribution analysis outperforms traditional methods.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,636.
MLA	Wang, Qingzheng,et al."The structural equation modeling constructed for runoff change attribution analysis outperforms traditional methods".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 636(2024).