干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.130666
	Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model
	Wang, Qingzheng; Sun, Yunfan; Guan, Qingyu; Du, Qinqin; Zhang, Zepeng; Zhang, Jun; Zhang, Erya
通讯作者	Guan, QY
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2024
卷号	630
英文摘要	Precipitation and runoff changes play a very important role in ecosystems and human well-being. Predicting its changes is critical for water resource management and coping with climate change. However, corresponding studies in arid regions are limited by lack of data and poor spatial distribution of meteorological stations. Therefore, this study identified the applicability of multi-source meteorological data in a typical arid region, the Shiyang River Basin, by comparing its variability with measured precipitation. Then, the best applicable precipitation product was selected to correct the data of CMIP6, and to predict the change of precipitation and runoff under the scenarios of SSP126/245/585 by 2100. The results showed that the CMADS dataset was more consistent with the measured data than TRMM and CFSR. Through Taylor diagram analysis and equidistant cumulative distribution functions matching (EDCDF) method bias correction, the GFDL-ESM4 model was more suitable for arid regions in terms of precipitation and temperature. During 2015-2100, the annual precipitation and average annual temperature under each scenario all showed an increasing trend. However, the monthly precipitation from May to October showed a decreasing trend, indicating an increase in precipitation during spring and winter, and a decrease during summer and autumn. The average temperature for all months from January to December showed an increasing trend. However, in arid regions, the temperature increase is more pronounced during colder months (1-3) compared to hotter months (6-9). The average annual runoff of SSP126 scenario showed an increasing trend from 2015 to 2100 (SSP126: 0.004/yr), while the runoff from the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios showed a decreasing trend (SSP245: - 0.031/yr; SSPSSP585: -0.084/yr). This is primarily attributed to a small increment of precipitation and a larger increment of temperature, an early melting of glacial snow and an increasing of evapotranspiration, which in turn leads to a reduction in annual runoff. The research can help achieving sustainable development, effective management of water resources in arid regions, and provide a reference and example for related research in high-resolution.
英文关键词	Precipitation Products GFDL-ESM4 CMIP6 SWAT EDCDF
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001175924200001
WOS关键词	RIVER-BASIN ; ANALYSIS TMPA ; TRMM 3B42 ; GPM IMERG ; SWAT ; PERFORMANCE ; PRODUCTS ; RAINFALL ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404548
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Qingzheng,Sun, Yunfan,Guan, Qingyu,et al. Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model[J],2024,630.
APA	Wang, Qingzheng.,Sun, Yunfan.,Guan, Qingyu.,Du, Qinqin.,Zhang, Zepeng.,...&Zhang, Erya.(2024).Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,630.
MLA	Wang, Qingzheng,et al."Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 630(2024).