干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Improving Supercooled Water Forecast Through Real-Time Aerosol Input: A Case Study

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DOI	10.1029/2023JD039671
	Improving Supercooled Water Forecast Through Real-Time Aerosol Input: A Case Study
	Wu, W.; Huang, W.; Li, B.; Xie, Y.; Yang, Y.; Wang, P.; Niu, Z.; Deng, L.
通讯作者	Huang, W
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
出版年	2024
卷号	129 期号:10
英文摘要	Accurately simulating and forecasting supercooled water has been crucial for addressing the threat of aircraft icing. This study utilized the Weather Research and Forecast model and Aerosol-Aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics (TE14) scheme to simulate supercooled water properties. Three high-resolution experiments were conducted to explore the impact of increased model resolution and different aerosol initial conditions. The synoptic-scale characteristics and cloud extent were well-matched between observations and the model simulation, which established a background for supercooled water comparisons. Microphysical characteristics of supercooled droplets and the formation of supercooled large drops demonstrated the TE14 scheme's reasonable simulation of supercooled water microphysics under different aerosol loadings. In situ aircraft measurements were used to validate the simulated supercooled water properties. Results highlighted the sensitivity of supercooled water simulation to aerosol number concentration via droplet activation in the scheme. The choice for the aerosol initial condition could result in a significant underestimation or overestimation of supercooled water number concentration, consequently leading to biased estimations of droplet size. Incorporating real-time forecast aerosol data improved the simulation by increasing cloud droplet number concentration and reducing droplet size. These findings underscored the importance of aerosols via droplet activation in accurately simulating cloud water properties and emphasized their role in forecasting aircraft icing hazards. The study examined the simulation of supercooled water during a frontal event in the arid region of northwestern China, where high concentrations of suspended particulate matter could increase the threat of aircraft icing. With the use of the Aerosol-Aware Thompson-Eidhammer microphysics scheme and a regional weather prediction model, the simulation results indicated the performance of droplet activation parameterization was reliable under realistic aerosol conditions. Underestimating environmental aerosol in the cloud process resulted in a likely underestimation of supercooled cloud droplet number concentration, leading to an overestimation to their size. Incorporating real-time aerosol data improved the droplet number, resulting in increased supercooled water content and more accurate droplet sizes. These findings underscored the importance of aerosols via droplet activation in accurately simulating cloud water properties and emphasized their role in forecasting aircraft icing hazards. The simulation of supercooled water is sensitive to the initial condition of aerosol number concentration A pronounced amount of supercooled large drops is simulated in the polluted scenarios and analyzed statistically Using real-time forecast aerosol data improves the simulation of supercooled droplet number concentration and mean particle size
英文关键词	numerical weather prediction supercooled water simulation aerosol effects on cloud aircraft icing
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001226336400001
WOS关键词	ICING CONDITIONS ; WRF MODEL ; AIRCRAFT ; CLOUD ; PRECIPITATION ; RAIN ; MESOSCALE ; MICROPHYSICS ; EVOLUTION ; CHINA
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404522
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu, W.,Huang, W.,Li, B.,et al. Improving Supercooled Water Forecast Through Real-Time Aerosol Input: A Case Study[J],2024,129(10).
APA	Wu, W..,Huang, W..,Li, B..,Xie, Y..,Yang, Y..,...&Deng, L..(2024).Improving Supercooled Water Forecast Through Real-Time Aerosol Input: A Case Study.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,129(10).
MLA	Wu, W.,et al."Improving Supercooled Water Forecast Through Real-Time Aerosol Input: A Case Study".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 129.10(2024).