干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s12040-024-02357-5
	Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India
	Jariwala, K. A.; Agnihotri, P. G.
通讯作者	Jariwala, KA
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE
ISSN	2347-4327
EISSN	0973-774X
出版年	2024
卷号	133 期号:3
英文摘要	Gujarat is situated within a climatic spectrum ranging from arid to semi-arid, characterised by periodic and recurrent drought phenomena coupled with an enduring and consistent challenge of water scarcity. Drought events in the Gujarat region place substantial stress on its water resource infrastructure, thereby impacting not only the hydrological aspects but also exerting notable repercussions on the intricate interplay between agriculture, economics, and the broader societal domain. Despite the implementation of numerous legislations and protocols aimed at mitigating the impact of drought and ameliorating the aftermath, the state of Gujarat experiences a recurring pattern of drought, resurfacing approximately every three years and inflicting substantial disruption upon the lives of its residents. This research focuses on analysing the current drought scenarios using the standard precipitation index (SPI) and meteorological drought modelling using autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) for identifying future drought conditions, which is a statistical modelling approach. Analysis of reference locations was carried out to identify the best model and the same model used for drought modelling and forecasting in the remaining locations. A meteorological drought risk map and drought frequency map were prepared using forecasting results. Model validation was done by computing RMSE and R-2 of multiple locations in the entire region.
英文关键词	Meteorological drought SPI ARIMAX modelling forecasting
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001283979600003
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404431
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jariwala, K. A.,Agnihotri, P. G.. Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India[J],2024,133(3).
APA	Jariwala, K. A.,&Agnihotri, P. G..(2024).Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India.JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE,133(3).
MLA	Jariwala, K. A.,et al."Time series modelling of drought in a semi-arid region of south Gujarat, India".JOURNAL OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE 133.3(2024).