干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.8490
	Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin
	Salehie, Obaidullah; bin Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat; bin Ismail, Tarmizi; Bin Harun, Sobri; Shahid, Shamsuddin
通讯作者	bin Jamal, MH ; Shahid, S
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2024
卷号	44 期号:9 页码:2948-2961
英文摘要	Water scarcity is a major challenge facing many regions worldwide, especially arid and semi-arid areas that are increasingly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to project water availability in the Amu Darya Basin (ADB) of Central Asia under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) during two upcoming periods (2020-2059 and 2060-2099). The study used a robust machine learning approach, namely a Random Forest (RF) model, to simulate Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) data from precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin). It then incorporated precipitation, Tmax and Tmin from four selected CMIP6 GCMs, into a water storage model to project spatiotemporal changes in water availability across the basin. The study also evaluated the relative impacts of land use and population on TWS. Results indicate an increase in TWS by approximately 4 cm in the basin's eastern, northwestern and southwestern regions in both future periods, while a decrease by approximately -4 cm in the remaining areas. These projections suggest that TWS will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. The most pronounced increase in TWS is anticipated in the snow-covered Tundra climate zone of the basin. This is attributed to the melting of glaciers, which contributes to runoff in the tributaries of the Amu River. The findings highlight the importance of considering climate change and socioeconomic factors when projecting water availability in arid and semi-arid regions. The projected changes in TWS have important implications for water resources management in the ADB, particularly in densely populated and intensively cultivated areas. This study revealed an increase in water availability by 4 cm in the east, northwest and southwest of Amu Darya Basin, while a decrease by -4 cm in the remaining areas in the future. The water availability will decline in densely populated regions and increase in certain intensively cultivated areas. image
英文关键词	GCMs GRACE land use population distribution water storage
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001237365200001
WOS关键词	RANDOM FOREST ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; CLASSIFICATION ; UNCERTAINTY ; PREDICTION ; MANAGEMENT ; ALGORITHM ; IMPACTS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404215
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Salehie, Obaidullah,bin Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat,bin Ismail, Tarmizi,et al. Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin[J],2024,44(9):2948-2961.
APA	Salehie, Obaidullah,bin Jamal, Mohamad Hidayat,bin Ismail, Tarmizi,Bin Harun, Sobri,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2024).Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(9),2948-2961.
MLA	Salehie, Obaidullah,et al."Projection of future water availability in the Amu Darya Basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.9(2024):2948-2961.