干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.8346
	A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan
	Ali, Zulfiqar; Hamed, Mohammad Magdy; Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan; Shahid, Shamsuddin
通讯作者	Shahid, S
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2024
卷号	44 期号:2 页码:592-612
英文摘要	The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global cli-mate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simula-tions of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency-based criteria. The changes in extreme cli-matic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi-model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020-2059 and 2060-2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded ini-tially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC-Earth3-Veg-LR, GFDL-ESM4, MRI-ESM2-0 and NOR-ESM2-MM to be effective in repro-ducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and pre-cipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5-5 degrees C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5 degrees C, consecu-tive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one-day maximum rainfall by 9-15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high-elevated areas during 2060-2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5-5 degrees C, TNn by >4.5 degrees C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40-60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060-2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high-elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.
英文关键词	climatic extremes criteria-based framework GCM selection hybrid method shared socioeconomic scenarios uncertainty
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001144562300001
WOS关键词	GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODELS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; SELECTION ; PROJECTION ; INDEXES
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/404213
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ali, Zulfiqar,Hamed, Mohammad Magdy,Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan,et al. A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan[J],2024,44(2):592-612.
APA	Ali, Zulfiqar,Hamed, Mohammad Magdy,Muhammad, Mohd Khairul Idlan,&Shahid, Shamsuddin.(2024).A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,44(2),592-612.
MLA	Ali, Zulfiqar,et al."A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 44.2(2024):592-612.