干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Variation in under-5 mortality attributable to anomalous precipitation during El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles: Assessment of the intertemporal inequality in child health

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102879
	Variation in under-5 mortality attributable to anomalous precipitation during El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles: Assessment of the intertemporal inequality in child health
	Xue, Tao; Wu, Jingyi; Li, Fangzhou; Tong, Mingkun; Liu, Hengyi; Yang, Wulin; Li, Pengfei
通讯作者	Xue, T
来源期刊	GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN	0959-3780
EISSN	1872-9495
出版年	2024
卷号	87
英文摘要	Objective: To explore the health effect of anomalous precipitation on deaths among children younger than 5 years (under-5 deaths) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: Based on a sample of 1.6 million children from 56 LMICs, we conducted a sibling-matched Cox regression model to examine the association between under-5 deaths and anomalous precipitation in annual average. We established a nonlinear exposure-response function to characterize heterogeneity in the association, and checked its robustness by conducting a few sensitivity analyses. To illustrate absolute risks embedded in the complex climate-health linkage, across 100 LMICs, we calculated burden of under-5 deaths attributable to anomalous precipitation, and showed how the burden varied with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a well-known predictable climate pattern affecting the rainfall cycle. We focused on the intertemporal inequality in the attributable burden. Results: The epidemiological analyses showed a robust negative association between anomalous precipitation and under-5 deaths for arid areas, and a potentially positive association for humid areas. The anomalous precipitation was significantly associated to an intertemporal inequality in under-5 mortality. Across the 100 LMICs, 26.7% or 134 million under-5 children lived in ENSO-sensitive areas. Among them, anomalous rainfall decreased under-5 deaths by 46,246 (CI: 24,599-68,703) during an El Nino year (October 2015 to September 2016), and increased under-5 deaths by 77,505 (CI: 55,890-99,815) during a La Nina year (March 2008 to February 2009) across the 100 LMICs. Conclusion: Anomalous precipitation can lead to intertemporal inequality in child health. Healthcare resources should be allocated according to predicted variability in precipitation, such as ENSO-mediated extreme rainfall.
英文关键词	Child mortality Anomalous precipitation Intertemporal inequality
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:001258904400001
WOS关键词	MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES ; EXPOSURE ; ASSOCIATION ; FAMINE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Geography
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geography
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403998
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xue, Tao,Wu, Jingyi,Li, Fangzhou,et al. Variation in under-5 mortality attributable to anomalous precipitation during El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles: Assessment of the intertemporal inequality in child health[J],2024,87.
APA	Xue, Tao.,Wu, Jingyi.,Li, Fangzhou.,Tong, Mingkun.,Liu, Hengyi.,...&Li, Pengfei.(2024).Variation in under-5 mortality attributable to anomalous precipitation during El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles: Assessment of the intertemporal inequality in child health.GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,87.
MLA	Xue, Tao,et al."Variation in under-5 mortality attributable to anomalous precipitation during El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles: Assessment of the intertemporal inequality in child health".GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 87(2024).