干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2024GL109202
	The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America
	Liang, Wengui; Zhao, Ming; Tan, Zhihong; Knutson, Thomas; Dong, Wenhao; Zhang, Bosong
通讯作者	Liang, WG
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2024
卷号	51 期号:14
英文摘要	Precipitation changes in full response to CO2 increase are widely studied but confidence in future projections remains low. Mechanistic understanding of the direct radiative effect of CO2 on precipitation changes, independent from CO2-induced SST changes, is therefore necessary. Utilizing global atmospheric models, we identify robust summer precipitation decreases across North America in response to direct CO2 forcing. We find that spatial distribution of CO2 forcing at land surface is likely shaped by climatological distribution of water vapor and clouds. This, coupled with local feedback processes, changes in convection, and moisture supply resulting from CO2-induced circulation changes, could determine North American hydroclimate changes. In central North America, increasing CO2 may decrease summertime precipitation by warming the surface and inducing dry advection into the region to reduce moisture supply. Meanwhile, for the southwest and the east, CO2-induced shift of subtropical highs generates wet advection, which might mitigate the drying effect from warming. Plain Language Summary How precipitation changes in full response to increased CO2 remains unclear. Mechanistic understanding of how increasing CO2 alone changes precipitation can help us better predict future precipitation in full response to CO2 increase. We find that the precipitation responses are much stronger during summer than winter in North America. During summer, precipitation significantly decreases in central North America in response to the direct CO2 radiative effect, while in the southwest and the east, precipitation changes are small. There might be stronger longwave radiation forcing near the surface induced by CO2 increase in arid regions due to weaker masking effect of water vapor and clouds. This, along with local feedbacks, significantly warms the central region. Meanwhile, the direct forcing of CO2 induces northward shifts in subtropical highs, consequently generating anticyclonic anomalies. These wind anomalies result in drier air advected into central North America, leading to moisture divergence and hence reducing moisture supply. The reduced water supply, coupled with the warming, may decrease precipitation in the region. For the southwest and the east, the anticyclonic anomalies cause wetter air advected into the regions and generate moisture convergence, which increases moisture supply and might mitigate the drying effect caused by CO2-induced warming.
英文关键词	CO2 direct effect precipitation circulation changes moisture changes radiative forcing
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001273710000001
WOS关键词	GFDL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE ; CIRCULATION RESPONSE ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; MODEL ; PROJECTIONS ; TRENDS ; IMPACT ; US ; PATTERNS ; BIAS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403955
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liang, Wengui,Zhao, Ming,Tan, Zhihong,et al. The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America[J],2024,51(14).
APA	Liang, Wengui,Zhao, Ming,Tan, Zhihong,Knutson, Thomas,Dong, Wenhao,&Zhang, Bosong.(2024).The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,51(14).
MLA	Liang, Wengui,et al."The Direct Radiative Effect of CO2 Increase on Summer Precipitation in North America".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 51.14(2024).