干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing

Arid

DOI	10.1080/19475705.2024.2347414
	Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing
	Abd-Elhamid, Hany F.; El-Dakak, Amr M.; Zelenakova, Martina; Saleh, O. K.; Mahdy, Mohamed; Abd El Ghany, Samah H.
通讯作者	Zelenáková, M
来源期刊	GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK
ISSN	1947-5705
EISSN	1947-5713
出版年	2024
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate changes in increasing at alarming rates which caused outward changes in the hydrological cycle parameters such as temperature and precipitation. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall has changed all over the world. Rainfall forecasting is considered an important tool that could help decisionmakers for managing water resources. Syria is facing several drought events that may affect its water resources. Due to the lack of available rainfall data from land stations in Syria after the civil war started in 2010 till now, one of the aims of this study is to depend on rainfall data from satellite images after correcting these data using the available land stations data. This study also aims to assess rainfall trends in Syria due to climate change and forecasting rainfall. The rainfall data were collected from 71 land stations from 1991 to 2009. Satellite images from Climate Data Record (CDR) were downloaded from 1983 to 2020 and ArcMap was used to extract rainfall data at locations of land stations. The extracted rainfall data from satellite images were corrected by land stations data from 1991 to 2009. Then Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program with Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models are used to fit and forecasting rainfall in Syria. The rainfall trends at the studied stations were analyzed for 40 years (1983-2022) and a forecast of one year is conducted. The results showed decreasing trends at all the stations that lead to a decrease the quantity of water received every year which could affect the water resources in Syria and agriculture and food security will be also affected. The results are consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports that concluded a decrease in rainfall at southern and eastern Mediterranean regions. The results of the current study could help in the management of water resources in Syria and forecasting using ARIMA is recommended for rainfall predictions.
英文关键词	Rainfall forecasting RS GIS ARIMA climate change arid regions Syria
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001220126900001
WOS关键词	SAUDI-ARABIA ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; WATER ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACTS ; MODEL
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403941
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abd-Elhamid, Hany F.,El-Dakak, Amr M.,Zelenakova, Martina,et al. Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing[J],2024,15(1).
APA	Abd-Elhamid, Hany F.,El-Dakak, Amr M.,Zelenakova, Martina,Saleh, O. K.,Mahdy, Mohamed,&Abd El Ghany, Samah H..(2024).Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing.GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK,15(1).
MLA	Abd-Elhamid, Hany F.,et al."Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing".GEOMATICS NATURAL HAZARDS & RISK 15.1(2024).