干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates

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DOI	10.3390/fire7040113
	Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates
	Jones, Roger N.; Ricketts, James H.
通讯作者	Jones, RN
来源期刊	FIRE-SWITZERLAND
ISSN	2571-6255
出版年	2024
卷号	7 期号:4
英文摘要	The Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is the main measure used in Australia for estimating fire risk. Recent work by the authors showed that the FFDI forms stable state regimes, nominated as fire climate regimes. These regimes shifted to greater intensity in southern and eastern Australia around the year 2000 and, a decade later, further north. Reductions in atmospheric moisture were the primary contributor. These changes have not been fully incorporated into future projections. This paper compares the recent regime shifts with the most recent national projections of FFDI, published in 2015. They show that for most states and regions, the 2030 upper limit is approached or exceeded by the recent shift, except for two states with large arid zones, South Australia and Western Australia. Methods for attributing past changes, constructing projections, and the inability of climate models to reproduce the recent decreases in atmospheric moisture, all contribute to these underestimates. To address these shortcomings, we make some suggestions to modify efforts aiming to develop seamless predictions and projections of future fire risk.
英文关键词	fire climates pyroclimates regime shifts Forest Fire Danger Index climate projections Australia
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001210662200001
WOS关键词	DANGER CLIMATOLOGY ; BIVARIATE TEST ; WEATHER ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; VICTORIA ; HUMIDITY ; SHIFT ; RISK
WOS类目	Ecology ; Forestry
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403738
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jones, Roger N.,Ricketts, James H.. Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates[J],2024,7(4).
APA	Jones, Roger N.,&Ricketts, James H..(2024).Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates.FIRE-SWITZERLAND,7(4).
MLA	Jones, Roger N.,et al."Comparing Observed and Projected Changes in Australian Fire Climates".FIRE-SWITZERLAND 7.4(2024).