干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ese.2024.100442
	65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau
	Chen, Yi-ping; Wang, Kai-bo; Fu, Bo-jie; Wang, Yan-fen; Tian, Han-wen; Wang, Yi; Zhang, Yi
通讯作者	Chen, YP
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY
ISSN	2666-4984
出版年	2024
卷号	22
英文摘要	Global temperatures will continue to increase in the future. The -640,000-km2 Loess Plateau (LP) is a typical arid and semi-arid region in China. Similar regions cover -41% of the Earth, and its soils are some of the most severely eroded anywhere in the world. It is very important to understand the vegetation change and its ecological threshold under climate change on the LP for the sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. However, little is known about how vegetation on the LP will respond to climate change and what is the sustainable threshold level of vegetation cover on the LP. Here we show that the temperature on the LP has risen 0.27 degrees C per decade over the past 50 years, a rate that is 30% higher than the average warming rate across China. During historical times, vegetation change was regulated by environmental factors and anthropogenic activities. Vegetation coverage was about 53% on the LP from the Xia Dynasty to the Spring and Autumn and Warring States period. Over the past 70 years, however, the environment has gradually improved and the vegetation cover had increased to -65% by 2021. We forecast future changes of vegetation cover on the LP in 2030s, in 2050s and in 2070s using SDM (Species Distribution Model) under Low-emission scenarios, Medium-emission scenarios and High-emission scenarios. An average value of vegetation cover under the three emission scenarios will be 64.67%, 62.70% and 61.47%, respectively. According to the historical record and SDM forecasts, the threshold level of vegetation cover on the LP is estimated to be 53e65%. Currently, vegetation cover on the LP has increased to the upper limit of the threshold value (-65%). We conclude that the risk of ecosystem collapse on the LP will increase with further temperature increases once the vegetated area and density exceed the threshold value. It is urgent to adopt sustainable strategies such as stopping expanding vegetation area and scientifically optimizing the vegetation structure on the LP to improve the ecological sustainability of the Yellow River Basin. (c) 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of Chinese Society for Environmental Sciences, Harbin Institute of Technology, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
英文关键词	Climate change Loss plateau Vegetation change Sustainable development Yellow River
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001262406000001
WOS关键词	CARBON SEQUESTRATION ; CHINA ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; IMPACTS ; ALASKA ; GREEN ; GRAIN
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403652
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Yi-ping,Wang, Kai-bo,Fu, Bo-jie,et al. 65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau[J],2024,22.
APA	Chen, Yi-ping.,Wang, Kai-bo.,Fu, Bo-jie.,Wang, Yan-fen.,Tian, Han-wen.,...&Zhang, Yi.(2024).65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau.ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY,22.
MLA	Chen, Yi-ping,et al."65% cover is the sustainable vegetation threshold on the Loess Plateau".ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND ECOTECHNOLOGY 22(2024).