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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ad52b0
	Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge
	Heinicke, Stefanie; Volkholz, Jan; Schewe, Jacob; Gosling, Simon N.; Schmied, Hannes Mueller; Zimmermann, Sandra; Mengel, Matthias; Sauer, Inga J.; Burek, Peter; Chang, Jinfeng; Kou-Giesbrecht, Sian; Grillakis, Manoli; Guillaumot, Luca; Hanasaki, Naota; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Otta, Kedar; Qi, Wei; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Yokohata, Tokuta; Frieler, Katja
通讯作者	Heinicke, S
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2024
卷号	19 期号:7
英文摘要	Global hydrological models (GHMs) are widely used to assess the impact of climate change on streamflow, floods, and hydrological droughts. For the 'model evaluation and impact attribution' part of the current round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a), modelling teams generated historical simulations based on observed climate and direct human forcings with updated model versions. Here we provide a comprehensive evaluation of daily and maximum annual discharge based on ISIMIP3a simulations from nine GHMs by comparing the simulations to observational data from 644 river gauge stations. We also assess low flows and the effects of different river routing schemes. We find that models can reproduce variability in daily and maximum annual discharge, but tend to overestimate both quantities, as well as low flows. Models perform better at stations in wetter areas and at lower elevations. Discharge routed with the river routing model CaMa-Flood can improve the performance of some models, but for others, variability is overestimated, leading to reduced model performance. This study indicates that areas for future model development include improving the simulation of processes in arid regions and cold dynamics at high elevations. We further suggest that studies attributing observed changes in discharge to historical climate change using the current model ensemble will be most meaningful in humid areas, at low elevations, and in places with a regular seasonal discharge as these are the regions where the underlying dynamics seem to be best represented.
英文关键词	model evaluation model intercomparison flood hydrological extremes river routing
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, Green Accepted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001248949000001
WOS关键词	LAND-SURFACE MODEL ; WATER SCARCITY ; CLIMATE ; RUNOFF ; V1.0
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403642
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Heinicke, Stefanie,Volkholz, Jan,Schewe, Jacob,et al. Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge[J],2024,19(7).
APA	Heinicke, Stefanie.,Volkholz, Jan.,Schewe, Jacob.,Gosling, Simon N..,Schmied, Hannes Mueller.,...&Frieler, Katja.(2024).Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,19(7).
MLA	Heinicke, Stefanie,et al."Global hydrological models continue to overestimate river discharge".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 19.7(2024).