干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10661-023-12181-x
	Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran
	Shirmohammadi, Bagher; Rostami, Maryam; Varamesh, Saeid; Jaafari, Abolfazl; Semiromi, Majid Taie
通讯作者	Shirmohammadi, B
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
出版年	2024
卷号	196 期号:1
英文摘要	Climate change has increased the vulnerability of arid and semi-arid regions to recurrent and prolonged meteorological droughts. In light of this, our study has sought to assess the nature of future meteorological drought in Lake Urmia basin, Iran, within the context of future climate projections. To achieve this, data from 54 general circulation models (GCMs) was calibrated against both in situ and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre datasets. These GCMs were then employed to project drought conditions expected over 2016-2046 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 as the most optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively. To provide a comprehensive analysis, these RCPs were combined with two different time scale Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), leading to eight different scenarios. The SPI was calculated over two temporal scales for the past (1985-2015) and future (2016-2046), including the medium-term (SPI-6) and long-term (SPI-18) index. Results showed that while precipitation is expected to increase by up to 34%, parts of the basin are projected to face severe and prolonged droughts under both RCPs. The most severe drought event is expected to occur around 2045-2046 under the most pessimistic RCP8.5 scenario. Severe droughts with low frequency are also anticipated to increase under other scenarios. By characterizing meteorological drought conditions for Lake Urmia basin under future climate conditions, our findings call for urgent action for adaptation strategies to mitigate the future adverse effects of drought in this region and other regions facing similar challenges. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into the impacts of climate change on future droughts that can adversely influence water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.
英文关键词	General circulation models (GCMs) Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) meteorological drought Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001117096800001
WOS关键词	MODEL ; ALARO-0 ; ASIA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403582
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shirmohammadi, Bagher,Rostami, Maryam,Varamesh, Saeid,et al. Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran[J],2024,196(1).
APA	Shirmohammadi, Bagher,Rostami, Maryam,Varamesh, Saeid,Jaafari, Abolfazl,&Semiromi, Majid Taie.(2024).Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,196(1).
MLA	Shirmohammadi, Bagher,et al."Future climate-driven drought events across Lake Urmia, Iran".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 196.1(2024).