干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s12665-024-11723-x
	Earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure
	Obata, Atsushi; Tsujino, Hiroyuki
通讯作者	Obata, A
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN	1866-6280
EISSN	1866-6299
出版年	2024
卷号	83 期号:13
英文摘要	We used the Meteorological Research Institute Earth System Model to investigate land precipitation and net primary production (NPP, proxy for agricultural production here) in terms of food and water security. In the preindustrial state, the largest decrease in Southeast Asian precipitation (> 20%) occurs along with the largest El Nino and positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, consistent with the 1876-78 Great Drought, leading to the largest decrease in NPP (similar to 20%); >2 standard deviations, extreme dryness and crop failure. In relatively arid regions (e.g., India and northeastern Brazil), the largest decreases in precipitation and NPP reach >= 50%, particularly 80 similar to 90% in Deccan, India. In the 21st century warming projection (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 5-8.5, the largest CO2 emission scenario), the interannual variability of precipitation and NPP in Monsoon Asia increase under the influence of enhanced El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Although the increased precipitation variability indicates more frequent severer droughts than in the preindustrial state, this severity does not influence NPP so much: the increased NPP variability is negligible compared to the significant increase in normal NPP by CO2 fertilization effect, which indicates usually rich harvests. Compared to a recent severe crop failure (- 25% in Japan in 1993), the simulated preindustrial drought-induced NPP decreases of >= 50% in parts of low latitudes are extraordinarily large enough to correspond to devastating crop failures. The model indicates that great famines before the 20th century were natural in origin, and that manmade factors, such as harsh taxes and hoarding and export of grain, made the famines more devastating.
英文关键词	Earth system model Net primary production Drought Crop failure El Nino
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001258686300003
WOS关键词	CLIMATE ; EVENTS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403560
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Obata, Atsushi,Tsujino, Hiroyuki. Earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure[J],2024,83(13).
APA	Obata, Atsushi,&Tsujino, Hiroyuki.(2024).Earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,83(13).
MLA	Obata, Atsushi,et al."Earth system model's capability of predicting drought-induced crop failure".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 83.13(2024).