干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modeling urban growth effects on carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions using system dynamics

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110565
	Modeling urban growth effects on carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions using system dynamics
	Manshadi, Zahra Dehghan; Parivar, Parastoo; Sotoudeh, Ahad; Sharifabadi, Ali Morovati
通讯作者	Parivar, P
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN	0304-3800
EISSN	1872-7026
出版年	2024
卷号	487
英文摘要	Urban carrying capacity (UCC) is essential to attaining sustainable development objectives. This study demonstrates the significance of strategies such as limiting built-up areas, preserving and expanding green and open spaces, and protecting water resources on health and urban carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions. This research is founded on the system dynamics model and aims to demonstrate, quantitatively and qualitatively, the interactions that affect urban carrying capacity between 2021 and 2040 in Tehran. The mean absolute percent error (MAPE), the coefficient of determination (R2), and the relative error (RE) all play a role in determining simulation accuracy. RE is less than 15 %, MAPE is less than 5 %, and R2 is more than 0.5, indicating that the system dynamics model adequately describes the actual behaviors. The results of the status quo scenario show that the current management policies will cause substantial damage to the environment, urban carrying capacity, and landscape subsystems and drive the system to an unsustainable level of water resources. In this scenario, between 2021 and 2040, water demand and built-up area increased by 26.26 % and 70.29 %, respectively, and in 2026, the Water Sustainability Index (WSI) will decline below 0.1, indicating that the water reserve cannot support the water demand after 2025. This study demonstrates that cities in arid and semi-arid regions cannot sustain continuous growth and physical development without considering the health of the primary carriers, such as spatial and water resources. In terms of health and urban carrying capacity, implementing a combination of policies aimed at enhancing urban green and open spaces and regulating water demand was the most effective. Also, considering that only ecological factors are considered in the present study, it is suggested that future research investigate economic and social aspects.
英文关键词	Urban carrying capacity System dynamics Arid and semi -arid lands Urban landscape structure
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001119172100001
WOS关键词	ECOSYSTEM HEALTH ; LAND-USE ; SUSTAINABILITY ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403440
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Manshadi, Zahra Dehghan,Parivar, Parastoo,Sotoudeh, Ahad,et al. Modeling urban growth effects on carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions using system dynamics[J],2024,487.
APA	Manshadi, Zahra Dehghan,Parivar, Parastoo,Sotoudeh, Ahad,&Sharifabadi, Ali Morovati.(2024).Modeling urban growth effects on carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions using system dynamics.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,487.
MLA	Manshadi, Zahra Dehghan,et al."Modeling urban growth effects on carrying capacity in arid and semi-arid regions using system dynamics".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 487(2024).