干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers

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DOI	10.1029/2023EF004334
	The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers
	Gincheva, Andrina; Pausas, Juli G.; Torres-Vazquez, Miguel Angel; Bedia, Joaquin; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Sanchez-Espigares, Josep A.; Chuvieco, Emilio; Jerez, Sonia; Provenzale, Antonello; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Turco, Marco
通讯作者	Gincheva, A
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN	2328-4277
出版年	2024
卷号	12 期号:7
英文摘要	Better understanding how fires respond to climate variability is an issue of current interest in light of ongoing climate change. However, evaluating the global-scale temporal variability of fires in response to climate presents a challenge due to the intricate processes at play and the limitation of fire data. Here, we investigate the links between year-to-year variability of burned area (BA) and climate using BA data, the Fire Weather Index (FWI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) from 2001 to 2021 at ecoregion scales. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns in the dependence of BA variability on antecedent and concurrent weather conditions, highlighting where BA is mostly influenced by either FWI or SPEI and where the combined effect of both indicators must be considered. Our findings indicate that same-season weather conditions have a more pronounced relationship with BA across various ecoregions, particularly in climatologically wetter areas. Additionally, we note that BA is also significantly associated with periods of antecedent wetness and coolness, with this association being especially evident in more arid ecoregions. About 60% of the interannual variations in BA can be explained by climatic variability in a large fraction (similar to 77%) of the world's burnable regions. In the context of changing climatic conditions, it is increasingly important to better understand the relationship between climate and fires. This study proposes a method that evaluates climatic conditions, either antecedent to or coincident with the fire season or the composite effect of both. It shows that the interannual variability of the global burned area for the period 2001 to 2021 is explained by climatic factors by around 60%. Our results also indicate that climatic drivers concurrent to the fire season prevail moderately over the antecedents. This suggests that the expected increase in burned area due to warmer and/or drier conditions can be mitigated where these climate conditions limit fuel availability. 2/3 of the interannual variations in area burned are explained by climate in a substantial portion of the world's burnable regions Same-fire-season weather is moderately more important than antecedent-fire-season weather for burned area variability Burned area is associated with antecedent wet and cool periods especially in the more arid areas
英文关键词	climate-fire burned area
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001263952300001
WOS关键词	FIRE OCCURRENCE ; WILDFIRE ; PREDICTABILITY ; SATELLITE ; PATTERNS ; GAUGE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403336
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gincheva, Andrina,Pausas, Juli G.,Torres-Vazquez, Miguel Angel,et al. The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers[J],2024,12(7).
APA	Gincheva, Andrina.,Pausas, Juli G..,Torres-Vazquez, Miguel Angel.,Bedia, Joaquin.,Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M..,...&Turco, Marco.(2024).The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers.EARTHS FUTURE,12(7).
MLA	Gincheva, Andrina,et al."The Interannual Variability of Global Burned Area Is Mostly Explained by Climatic Drivers".EARTHS FUTURE 12.7(2024).