干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change

Arid

DOI	10.1038/s43247-024-01463-y
	Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change
	Zhang, Xinyue; Evans, Jason P.; Burrell, Arden L.
通讯作者	Zhang, XY ; Evans, JP
来源期刊	COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
EISSN	2662-4435
出版年	2024
卷号	5 期号:1
英文摘要	Drylands have low biological productivity compared to non-drylands, making many human activities within them sensitive to long-term trends. Trends in the Aridity Index over several decades indicate increasing aridity in the drylands, which has been linked to increasing occurrence of desertification. Future projections show continued increases in aridity due to climate change, suggesting that drylands will expand. In contrast, satellite observations indicate an increase in vegetation productivity. Given the past inconsistency between the Aridity Index changes and observed vegetation changes, the future evolution of vegetation productivity within the drylands remains an open question. Here we used a data driven approach to show that increasing aridity in drylands won't lead to a general loss of vegetation productivity. Most of the global drylands are projected to see an increase in vegetation productivity due to climate change through 2050. The aridity index will not be a good indicator of drylands in future climates. We found a broad boost to dryland vegetation productivity due to the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect that is negated by climate changes in at most 4% of global drylands to produce desertification. These regions include parts of north-east Brazil, Namibia, western Sahel, Horn of Africa and central Asia. A broad boost to dryland vegetation productivity due to the CO2 fertilization effect is negated by climate changes in at most 4% of global drylands, resulting in desertification, according to analysis of climate and vegetation datasets.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001243340700004
WOS关键词	VEGETATION INDEX ; LAND DEGRADATION ; TREND ANALYSIS ; EARTH ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; THORNTHWAITE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY ; GREENNESS ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/403229
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Xinyue,Evans, Jason P.,Burrell, Arden L.. Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change[J],2024,5(1).
APA	Zhang, Xinyue,Evans, Jason P.,&Burrell, Arden L..(2024).Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change.COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(1).
MLA	Zhang, Xinyue,et al."Less than 4% of dryland areas are projected to desertify despite increased aridity under climate change".COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.1(2024).