干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.3390/atmos15070866
	Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios
	Rakhmatova, Natella; Nishonov, Bakhriddin E.; Kholmatjanov, Bakhtiyar M.; Rakhmatova, Valeriya; Toderich, Kristina N.; Khasankhanova, Gulchekhra M.; Shardakova, Lyudmila; Khujanazarov, Temur; Ungalov, Akmal N.; Belikov, Dmitry A.
通讯作者	Belikov, DA
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
EISSN	2073-4433
出版年	2024
卷号	15 期号:7
英文摘要	Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world's largest arid zone. This study examines the evolving intensity of climate change and drought events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulated under the Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP and SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates of increase in temperature and precipitation under the RCPs and SSPs. Projected temperature increases are expected to reach up to 2-2.5 degrees C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080-2099, an increase is projected of 2-3 degrees C in monthly mean temperatures throughout the year (SSP1-2.6), and a more pronounced increase in summer up to 3-4 degrees C (SSP2-4.5) and 4-6 degrees C (SSP3-7.0), with a marked contrast in conditions between the mountainous and desert regions of Uzbekistan. Regional changes in precipitation over the study periods show relatively little variability, except for FD, where notable trends are found. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the increase in precipitation is relatively modest, whereas the changes in SSP3-7.0 are more substantial, with some regions experiencing variations of up to 10-20 mm per period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based on the projected temperature and precipitation, provides an estimate of future drought trends. Our results show increasing aridity under all scenarios by mid-century, with longer-term projections indicating stabilization around different SPEI values by 2100: RCP2.6 and SSP1-1.9 stabilize around -1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 stabilize around -1.5; while RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project values of -2 or less by 2100. Notable differences in the SPEI index are found between lowland and foothill regions. In view of Uzbekistan's heavy reliance on agriculture and irrigation, which are the sectors that are expected to be mostly affected by climate change, our study provides a scientific basis for informed policy decision-making. This includes various aspects such as planning and management water resources, as well as the broader socioeconomic development of the country.
英文关键词	RCP scenarios SSP scenarios climate change drought SPEI Uzbekistan
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001276752100001
WOS关键词	INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT SCENARIOMIP ; ARID CENTRAL-ASIA ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; DATASET ; TREND
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402979
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rakhmatova, Natella,Nishonov, Bakhriddin E.,Kholmatjanov, Bakhtiyar M.,et al. Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios[J],2024,15(7).
APA	Rakhmatova, Natella.,Nishonov, Bakhriddin E..,Kholmatjanov, Bakhtiyar M..,Rakhmatova, Valeriya.,Toderich, Kristina N..,...&Belikov, Dmitry A..(2024).Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios.ATMOSPHERE,15(7).
MLA	Rakhmatova, Natella,et al."Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios".ATMOSPHERE 15.7(2024).