干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)

Arid

DOI	10.3390/atmos15060673
	Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)
	Mohammed, Ruqayah; Scholz, Miklas
通讯作者	Scholz, M
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
EISSN	2073-4433
出版年	2024
卷号	15 期号:6
英文摘要	Selecting appropriate climate change scenarios is crucial, as it influences the outcomes of climate change impact studies. Several storylines could be used to investigate the sensitivity of water resource schemes to weather variability and improve policymakers' adaptation strategies. This study proposes a comprehensive and generic methodology for assessing the future climate change impact on semi-arid and arid zones at the basin scale by comparing delta perturbation scenarios to the outcomes of seven collections of GCMs (general circulation models). The findings indicate that the two scenarios predicted nearly identical declines in average reservoir discharges over a monthly timescale. Consequently, their maximum values are almost similar. The projected decrease in the streamflow for the period 2080-2099 is approximately 48%-the same as the ratio from the delta perturbation scenario of Future16 (a 30% precipitation decrease and a 30% potential evapotranspiration increase). Furthermore, delta perturbation scenarios allow the impacts of model sensitivity to climate change to be clearly identified in relation to GCM scenarios. Delta perturbation scenarios allow for an extensive collection of possible climate changes at the regional scale. In addition, delta perturbation scenarios are simpler to create and use; therefore, they might complement GCM scenarios.
英文关键词	climate scenario general circulation model hydro-climatic variable prediction Lesser Zab River Basin reservoir performance
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001254532000001
WOS关键词	RECONNAISSANCE DROUGHT INDEX ; WATER-RESOURCES ; VARIABILITY ; RELIABILITY ; ADAPTATION ; MANAGEMENT ; REGIONS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402976
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mohammed, Ruqayah,Scholz, Miklas. Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)[J],2024,15(6).
APA	Mohammed, Ruqayah,&Scholz, Miklas.(2024).Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran).ATMOSPHERE,15(6).
MLA	Mohammed, Ruqayah,et al."Climate Change Scenarios for Impact Assessment: Lower Zab River Basin (Iraq and Iran)".ATMOSPHERE 15.6(2024).