干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.3390/atmos15020208
	Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios
	Cao, Chenglin; Wang, Yi; Fan, Lei; Ding, Junwei; Chen, Wen
通讯作者	Wang, Y
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERE
EISSN	2073-4433
出版年	2024
卷号	15 期号:2
英文摘要	Xinjiang, located in the arid region of the northwest, is one of the areas most sensitive to global changes. The Kaidu River Basin, situated in the heart of Xinjiang, is one of the sources of China's largest inland river-the Tarim River. The Kaidu River not only bears the responsibility for supplying water for industrial use and agricultural production and people's daily life in the basin, but also plays a crucial role in ecological water supply to the Tarim River. Studying and analyzing the characteristics and trends of meteorological condition in the future under climate change can provide important references and a basis for a deeper understanding of changes in the hydrological process and water resources in the basin. Therefore, this paper selects seven precipitation bias correction methods and four temperature bias correction methods to adjust the precipitation and temperature output data of eight general circulation models of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) within the Kaidu River Basin. The applicability of different bias correction methods in the study area is evaluated, and based on the corrected future meteorological data and calculated extreme meteorological index, the trends of meteorological data (precipitation, temperature) in the future period (2025-2050) under four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) in the Kaidu River Basin are analyzed. The results show that: (1) Different types of bias correction methods have different correction focus and effects; their reflections on evaluation indicators are also different. (2) In the future period (2025-2050), the annual precipitation and average temperature in the Kaidu River Basin are higher than those in the historical period (1975-2014). The average annual temperature shows an upward trend in the future, but the annual precipitation shows a downward trend in the future except for the SSP2-4.5 scenario. (3) Compared with the historical period, the extreme precipitation in the future period under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is higher than that in the historical period, and the number of rainless days decreases. In the future, under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the probability of meteorological drought events occurring due to high temperatures in the basin may further increase, while under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the situation of high temperatures and heavy rain in the basin may continue to increase.
英文关键词	Kaidu river basin CMIP6 SSP scenarios water resources change climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001170141700001
WOS关键词	NORTHWEST CHINA ; BIAS CORRECTION ; ARID REGION ; HYDROLOGY ; EVENTS ; IMPACT ; AREAS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402969
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Chenglin,Wang, Yi,Fan, Lei,et al. Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios[J],2024,15(2).
APA	Cao, Chenglin,Wang, Yi,Fan, Lei,Ding, Junwei,&Chen, Wen.(2024).Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios.ATMOSPHERE,15(2).
MLA	Cao, Chenglin,et al."Assessment and Prediction of Future Climate Change in the Kaidu River Basin of Xinjiang under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Scenarios".ATMOSPHERE 15.2(2024).