干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change

Arid

DOI	10.1093/aob/mcae094
	Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change
	Felix-Burruel, Ricardo E.; Larios, Eugenio; Gonzalez, Edgar J.; Burquez, Alberto
通讯作者	González, EJ
来源期刊	ANNALS OF BOTANY
ISSN	0305-7364
EISSN	1095-8290
出版年	2024
英文摘要	Background and Aims Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting species, which in arid regions will translate into more frequent and intense periods of drought. The Sonoran Desert is becoming hotter and drier, and many organisms are rapidly changing in abundance and distribution. These population attributes depend directly on the dynamics of the population, which in turn depends on the vital rates of its individuals; yet few studies have documented the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of keystone species such as the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). Although saguaros have traits that enable them to withstand present environmental conditions, climate change could make them vulnerable if forced beyond their tolerance limits.Methods We evaluated the effect of climate change on 13 saguaro populations spanning most of the species' distribution range. Using field data from 2014 to 2016, we built an integral projection model (IPM) describing the environmentally explicit dynamics of the populations. We used this IPM, along with projections of two climate change scenarios and one no-change scenario, to predict population sizes (N) and growth rates (lambda) from 2017 to 2099 and compared these scenarios to demonstrate the effect of climate change on the future of saguaro cactuses.Key Results We found that all populations will decline, mainly due to future increases in drought, mostly hindering recruitment. However, the decline will be different across populations, since those located near the coast will be affected by harsher drought events than those located further inland.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that climate change and its associated increase in drought pose a significant threat to the saguaro cactus populations in the Sonoran Desert. Our findings indicate that the recruitment of saguaros, vital for establishing new individuals, is particularly vulnerable to intensifying drought conditions. Importantly, regional climate trends will have different impacts on saguaro populations across their distribution range.
英文关键词	Climate change population projections drought vital rates environmental variation species range Carnegiea gigantea
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001253840400001
WOS关键词	CARNEGIEA-GIGANTEA ; DEMOGRAPHIC-TRENDS ; EXTINCTION RISK ; SONORAN DESERT ; LONG-TERM ; VARIABILITY ; ESTABLISHMENT ; REGENERATION ; PATTERNS ; TIME
WOS类目	Plant Sciences
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402831
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Felix-Burruel, Ricardo E.,Larios, Eugenio,Gonzalez, Edgar J.,et al. Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change[J],2024.
APA	Felix-Burruel, Ricardo E.,Larios, Eugenio,Gonzalez, Edgar J.,&Burquez, Alberto.(2024).Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change.ANNALS OF BOTANY.
MLA	Felix-Burruel, Ricardo E.,et al."Population decline of the saguaro cactus throughout its distribution is associated with climate change".ANNALS OF BOTANY (2024).