干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Climatic Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in Tunisian Semi-Arid Region

Arid

DOI	10.3390/agriculture14010160
	Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Climatic Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in Tunisian Semi-Arid Region
	Latrech, Basma; Hermassi, Taoufik; Yacoubi, Samir; Slatni, Adel; Jarray, Fathia; Pouget, Laurent; Ben Abdallah, Mohamed Ali; Cui, Ningbo
通讯作者	Hermassi, T
来源期刊	AGRICULTURE-BASEL
EISSN	2077-0472
出版年	2024
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Systematic biases in general circulation models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM) impede their direct use in climate change impact research. Hence, the bias correction of GCM-RCMs outputs is a primary step in such studies. This study compares the potential of two bias correction methods (the method from the third phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3) and Detrended Quantile Matching (DQM)) applied to the raw outputs of daily data of minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation, in the Cap-Bon region, from eight GCM-RCM combinations. The outputs of GCM/RCM combinations were acquired from the European branch of the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (EURO-CORDEX) dataset for historical periods and under two representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Furthermore, the best combination of bias correction/GCM-RCM was used to assess the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Numerous statistical indicators were considered to evaluate the performance of the bias correction/historical GCM-RCMs compared to the observed data. Trends of the Hargreaves-Samani_ET0 model during the historical and projected periods were determined using the TFPMK method. A comparison of the bias correction methods revealed that, for all the studied model combinations, ISIMIP3 performs better in reducing biases in monthly precipitation. However, for Tmax and Tmin, the biases are greatly removed when the DQM bias correction method is applied. In general, better results were obtained when the HadCCLM model was used. Before applying bias correction, the set of used GCM-RCMs projected reductions in precipitation for most of the months compared to the reference period (1982-2006). However, Tmin and Tmax are expected to increase in all months and for the three studied periods. Hargreaves-Samani ET0 values obtained from the best combination (DQM/ HadCCLM) show that RCP8.5 (2075-2098) will exhibit the highest annual ET0 increase compared to the RCP4.5 scenario and the other periods, with a change rate equal to 11.85% compared to the historical period. Regarding spring and summer seasons, the change rates of ET0 are expected to reach 10.44 and 18.07%, respectively, under RCP8.5 (2075-2098). This study shows that the model can be used to determine long-term trends in ET0 patterns for diverse purposes, such as water resources planning, agricultural crop management and irrigation scheduling in the Cap-Bon region.
英文关键词	bias correction GCM/RCMs combinations reference evapotranspiration Cap-Bon
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001148903700001
WOS关键词	BIAS CORRECTION ; SIMULATIONS ; PERFORMANCE ; TRENDS
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402708
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Latrech, Basma,Hermassi, Taoufik,Yacoubi, Samir,et al. Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Climatic Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in Tunisian Semi-Arid Region[J],2024,14(1).
APA	Latrech, Basma.,Hermassi, Taoufik.,Yacoubi, Samir.,Slatni, Adel.,Jarray, Fathia.,...&Cui, Ningbo.(2024).Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Climatic Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in Tunisian Semi-Arid Region.AGRICULTURE-BASEL,14(1).
MLA	Latrech, Basma,et al."Comparative Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Climatic Variables and Reference Evapotranspiration in Tunisian Semi-Arid Region".AGRICULTURE-BASEL 14.1(2024).