干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification - A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agee.2024.109232
	Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification - A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula
	Gomes, Ines; Chozas, Sergio; Barradas, Mari Cruz Diaz; Alves, Fernando Louro; Ascensao, Fernando
通讯作者	Ascensao, F
来源期刊	AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0167-8809
EISSN	1873-2305
出版年	2024
卷号	376
英文摘要	Climate change is driving a poleward shift in the optimal distributions of terrestrial organisms, including trees. Consequently, trees are expected to decrease in climatically unfavourable areas as their optimal climatic conditions shift poleward. This is the case of Mediterranean High Nature Value agroforestry systems in Iberian Peninsula, dominated by holm oaks (Quercus rotundifolia) and cork oaks (Quercus suber), which are expected to shift their future distribution northward. Failure to keep pace with climate warming poses a heightened risk of extinction for these tree species, as well as the loss of crucial ecosystem services they provide. A similar situation is found for argan trees (Argania spinosa) in the southwestern region of Morocco, where it also supports an agroforestry system. The optimum climate for these trees is also shifting northward, toward the Iberian Peninsula. As the argan tree thrives in more arid conditions with irregular precipitation, the future climatic conditions in the Iberian Peninsula may become favourable for the persistence of this tree. In light of this situation, the assisted colonization of the argan tree could potentially contribute to protecting and preserving the tree-associated ecosystem services in Iberian Peninsula. We conducted climate suitability modelling using maximum entropy approach, for both the current and future timeframes, for North of Morocco and Algeria (native range) and the whole Iberian Peninsula (non-native range). Accordingly, there appears to be a significant area with highly suitable climatic conditions (>80 %) for argan tree occurrence, covering approximately 6.7 % of the territory, over 38,000 km(2). This area is projected to increase significantly in the future, covering 9-22 % of the territory, or about 55,000 and 127,000 km(2). With this study, we aim to contribute to the discussion on the benefits of assisted colonization of argan trees into Iberian Peninsula, as well as potential drawbacks such as the risk of this species becoming invasive.
英文关键词	Assisted colonisation Range shift Ecosystem services Maximum entropy High Nature Farmlands
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001298947300001
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; CONSERVATION ; SHIFTS ; NICHE
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/402707
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gomes, Ines,Chozas, Sergio,Barradas, Mari Cruz Diaz,et al. Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification - A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula[J],2024,376.
APA	Gomes, Ines,Chozas, Sergio,Barradas, Mari Cruz Diaz,Alves, Fernando Louro,&Ascensao, Fernando.(2024).Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification - A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula.AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT,376.
MLA	Gomes, Ines,et al."Predicting the climatic suitability of non-native drought resistant trees in the face of desertification - A case study with Argania spinosa in the Iberian Peninsula".AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT 376(2024).