干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydrology: Interpreting Black-Box Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Predictions in an Arid Andean Basin of North-Central Chile

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w15193369
	Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydrology: Interpreting Black-Box Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Predictions in an Arid Andean Basin of North-Central Chile
	Nunez, Jorge; Cortes, Catalina B.; Yanez, Marjorie A.
通讯作者	Núñez, J
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:19
英文摘要	In recent years, a new discipline known as Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) has emerged, which has followed the growing trend experienced by Artificial Intelligence over the last decades. There are, however, important gaps in the adoption of XAI in hydrology research, in terms of application studies in the southern hemisphere, or in studies associated with snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction in arid regions, to mention a few. This paper seeks to contribute to filling these knowledge gaps through the application of XAI techniques in snowmelt-driven streamflow prediction in a basin located in the arid region of north-central Chile in South America. For this, two prediction models were built using the Random Forest algorithm, for one and four months in advance. The models show good prediction performance in the training set for one (RMSE:1.33, R2: 0.94, MAE:0.55) and four (RMSE: 5.67, R2:0.94, MAE: 1.51) months in advance. The selected interpretation techniques (importance of the variable, partial dependence plot, accumulated local effects plot, Shapley values and local interpretable model-agnostic explanations) show that hydrometeorological variables in the vicinity of the basin are more important than climate variables and this occurs both for the dataset level and for the months with the lowest streamflow records. The importance of the XAI approach adopted in this study is discussed in terms of its contribution to the understanding of hydrological processes, as well as its role in high-stakes decision-making.
英文关键词	Explainable Artificial Intelligence interpretable machine learning XAI iML hydrology Chile streamflow prediction Elqui River basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001086791500001
WOS关键词	SCIENCE ; MODEL ; SELECTION ; SOCIETY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/399081
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nunez, Jorge,Cortes, Catalina B.,Yanez, Marjorie A.. Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydrology: Interpreting Black-Box Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Predictions in an Arid Andean Basin of North-Central Chile[J],2023,15(19).
APA	Nunez, Jorge,Cortes, Catalina B.,&Yanez, Marjorie A..(2023).Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydrology: Interpreting Black-Box Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Predictions in an Arid Andean Basin of North-Central Chile.WATER,15(19).
MLA	Nunez, Jorge,et al."Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Hydrology: Interpreting Black-Box Snowmelt-Driven Streamflow Predictions in an Arid Andean Basin of North-Central Chile".WATER 15.19(2023).