干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Water Balance of the Regulated Arid Lake as an Indicator of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact: The North (Small) Aral Sea Case Study

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w15081464
	Water Balance of the Regulated Arid Lake as an Indicator of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact: The North (Small) Aral Sea Case Study
	Izhitskiy, Alexander; Ayzel, Georgy
通讯作者	Izhitskiy, A
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	Inland waters in the endorheic basins of the arid zone are especially vulnerable to both climate-induced changes and anthropogenic influence. The North Aral Sea, which previously suffered a drastic shrinkage and partially recovered with the launch of the human-made Kokaral dam, is currently subject to significant inter-annual variability of its water volume. This study aimed to obtain insight into the modern water balance condition of the lake and to project the possible changes in it. A series of model simulation experiments were implemented based on three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios with varying maximum lake surface levels, determined by the dam. Present-day dam conditions showed the possibility to retain the lake volume above 26 km(3) under the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios. Simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario revealed significant instability of the lake volume and a well-shown decrease in the outflow amount. A possible human-made increase in terms of the lake surface level up to 48.5 m.a.s.l. may allow for the retention of the volume in the range of 48-50 km(3) in the RCP 2.6 case. The RCP 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios revealed a lake volume decrease and almost full cessation of the Kokaral outflow toward the end of the 21st century.
英文关键词	Syr Darya river inflow brackish reservoir surface level endorheic basin climatic scenario hydrology limnology evaporation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000981125600001
WOS关键词	SATELLITE ALTIMETRY ; SALT COMPOSITION ; STATE ; EVOLUTION ; DECLINE ; LEVEL ; MODEL ; BASIN
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/399019
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Izhitskiy, Alexander,Ayzel, Georgy. Water Balance of the Regulated Arid Lake as an Indicator of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact: The North (Small) Aral Sea Case Study[J],2023,15(8).
APA	Izhitskiy, Alexander,&Ayzel, Georgy.(2023).Water Balance of the Regulated Arid Lake as an Indicator of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact: The North (Small) Aral Sea Case Study.WATER,15(8).
MLA	Izhitskiy, Alexander,et al."Water Balance of the Regulated Arid Lake as an Indicator of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impact: The North (Small) Aral Sea Case Study".WATER 15.8(2023).