干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Coupled Model for Assessing the Present and Future Watershed Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w15040711
	Coupled Model for Assessing the Present and Future Watershed Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts
	Martinez, Adrian; Herrera, Manuel; de la Cruz, Jesus Lopez; Orozco, Ismael
通讯作者	Orozco, I
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	There is great uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on the global economic, social, environmental, and water sectors. This paper focuses on watershed vulnerabilities to climate change by coupling a distributed hydrological model with artificial neural networks and spatially distributed indicators for the use of a predictive model of such vulnerability. The analyses are complemented by a Monte Carlo evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the projections of the global circulation models, including how such uncertainty impacts the vulnerability forecast. To test the proposal, the paper uses current and future vulnerabilities of the Turbio River watershed, located in the semi-arid zone of Guanajuato (Mexico). The results show that nearly 50% of the watershed currently has medium and high vulnerabilities, and only the natural areas in the watershed show low vulnerabilities. In the future, an increase from medium to high vulnerability is expected to occur in urban and agricultural areas of the basin, with an associated uncertainty of +/- 15 mm in the projected precipitation.
英文关键词	vulnerability climate change watersheds uncertainty Monte Carlo simulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000941996600001
WOS关键词	ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ; DOWNSCALING METHODS ; URBANIZATION ; PROJECTIONS ; CALIBRATION ; DYNAMICS ; SURFACE ; REGION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398989
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Martinez, Adrian,Herrera, Manuel,de la Cruz, Jesus Lopez,et al. Coupled Model for Assessing the Present and Future Watershed Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts[J],2023,15(4).
APA	Martinez, Adrian,Herrera, Manuel,de la Cruz, Jesus Lopez,&Orozco, Ismael.(2023).Coupled Model for Assessing the Present and Future Watershed Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts.WATER,15(4).
MLA	Martinez, Adrian,et al."Coupled Model for Assessing the Present and Future Watershed Vulnerabilities to Climate Change Impacts".WATER 15.4(2023).