干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Early Forecasting Hydrological and Agricultural Droughts in the Bouregreg Basin Using a Machine Learning Approach

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w15010122
	Early Forecasting Hydrological and Agricultural Droughts in the Bouregreg Basin Using a Machine Learning Approach
	Nafii, Ayoub; Taleb, Abdeslam; El Mesbahi, Mourad; Ezzaouini, Mohamed Abdellah; El Bilali, Ali
通讯作者	Nafii, A
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:1
英文摘要	Water supply for drinking and agricultural purposes in semi-arid regions is confronted with severe drought risks, which impact socioeconomic development. However, early forecasting of drought indices is crucial in water resource management to implement mitigation measures against its consequences. In this study, we attempt to develop an integrated approach to forecast the agricultural and hydrological drought in a semi-arid zone to ensure sustainable agropastoral activities at the watershed scale and drinking water supply at the reservoir scale. To that end, we used machine learning algorithms to forecast the annual SPEI and we embedded it into the hydrological drought by implementing a correlation between the reservoir's annual inflow and the annual SPEI. The results showed that starting from December we can forecast the annual SPEI and so the annual reservoir inflow with an NSE ranges from 0.62 to 0.99 during the validation process. The proposed approach allows the decision makers not only to manage agricultural drought in order to ensure pastoral activities sustainability at watershed scale but also to manage hydrological drought at a reservoir scale.
英文关键词	Bouregreg basin artificial neural network hydrological drought agricultural drought SPEI
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000909620600001
WOS关键词	ECONOMIC-LOSSES ; PREDICTION ; SPEI ; REGRESSION ; IMPACTS ; INDEX ; KEY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398972
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nafii, Ayoub,Taleb, Abdeslam,El Mesbahi, Mourad,et al. Early Forecasting Hydrological and Agricultural Droughts in the Bouregreg Basin Using a Machine Learning Approach[J],2023,15(1).
APA	Nafii, Ayoub,Taleb, Abdeslam,El Mesbahi, Mourad,Ezzaouini, Mohamed Abdellah,&El Bilali, Ali.(2023).Early Forecasting Hydrological and Agricultural Droughts in the Bouregreg Basin Using a Machine Learning Approach.WATER,15(1).
MLA	Nafii, Ayoub,et al."Early Forecasting Hydrological and Agricultural Droughts in the Bouregreg Basin Using a Machine Learning Approach".WATER 15.1(2023).