干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021-2050)

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-022-04315-x
	How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021-2050)
	Yang, Jintao; Yang, Kai; Wang, Chenghai
通讯作者	Yang, K ; Wang, CH
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2023
卷号	151 期号:1-2 页码:935-948
英文摘要	Arid, semi-arid, and semi-humid regions (drylands) with fragile ecological balance have undergone dramatic climate change in past decades, and how the desertification will change under a continuous warming background still remain uncertain. In this study, the bias-corrected Community Earth System Model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 were dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, based on which the evolution trend of desertification over northern China (NC) in the past (1972-2000) and the near future period (2021-2050) under the RCP8.5 scenario were analyzed using the dune mobility index, and the impacts of climate change on the intensification or reversal of desertification over NC in the near future were explored. The results show that WRF downscaling can reproduce the desertification changes over NC in the past. The regions with a high risk of desertification are mainly located on the border of the desert and gobi. Under a rapidly warming climate in the near future, desertification will likely reverse in most regions of NC, especially for regions north of 40 & DEG;N over NC. Potential evapotranspiration changes will exacerbate desertification, while precipitation changes will promote rehabilitation, and wind speed changes show obvious local impacts on desertification. The results in this study imply that, with rising temperatures in the future, the extent of desertification will not always continue, desertification will likely reverse at the front and margin of deserts and gobi, and responses of desertification to climate change have significant spatial differences.
英文关键词	Desertification High emission scenario Climate change Dune mobility index Northern China
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000898586900002
WOS关键词	DUNEFIELD ACTIVITY ; VARIABILITY ; KALAHARI ; IMPACT ; MODEL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398893
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Jintao,Yang, Kai,Wang, Chenghai. How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021-2050)[J],2023,151(1-2):935-948.
APA	Yang, Jintao,Yang, Kai,&Wang, Chenghai.(2023).How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021-2050).THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,151(1-2),935-948.
MLA	Yang, Jintao,et al."How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021-2050)".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 151.1-2(2023):935-948.