干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00477-023-02438-9
	Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030
	Gan, Lu; Halik, Umut; Shi, Lei; Welp, Martin
通讯作者	Halik, U
来源期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN	1436-3240
EISSN	1436-3259
出版年	2023
卷号	37 期号:8 页码:3099-3115
英文摘要	The healthy development of human society and the ecological environment depends on the guarantee of ecological security. However, the impact mechanisms of the influencing factors of ecological risk and the prediction of future scenarios are still not sufficiently developed, especially in arid oasis cities. Based on multivariate data, this research used the ecological risk assessment model based on landscape pattern index to revealing the spatial and temporal evolution trend of Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi urban agglomerations (UCSUA) ecological risk and the influence mechanism of influencing factors, and used the PLUS model to simulate and predict the ecological risk in 2030 under natural development (ND) scenario, economic development (ED) scenario and ecological protection (EP) scenario. The results showed that: (1) The overall risk indexes of the UCSUA in 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were 0.01381, 0.01364, 0.01325 and 0.01440 respectively, the relative ERI of cropland is low, the ERI of unused land is the highest. (2) Ecological risks were distributed in clusters, and the interaction of multiple factors made impact on ecological risk. (3) Ecological risk showed an overall distribution of high in the north and low in the south in the UCSUA, and that the cumulative effect of changes in landscape patterns caused by human activities would lead to changes in ecological risk, and the EP had the lowest ecological risk in the future scenarios. Ultimately, the results of this study explored the spatial and temporal changes in ecological risks and their impact mechanisms, improving ecological risk management and sustainable development strategies.
英文关键词	Ecological risk assessment GeoDetector modeling Scenarios prediction Arid oasis cities
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000966694200001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398727
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gan, Lu,Halik, Umut,Shi, Lei,et al. Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030[J],2023,37(8):3099-3115.
APA	Gan, Lu,Halik, Umut,Shi, Lei,&Welp, Martin.(2023).Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,37(8),3099-3115.
MLA	Gan, Lu,et al."Ecological risk assessment and multi-scenario dynamic prediction of the arid oasis cities in northwest China from 1990 to 2030".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 37.8(2023):3099-3115.