干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00477-022-02285-0
	A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers
	Zuo, Jingping; Xu, Jianhua; Qian, Cuncun
通讯作者	Zuo, JP
来源期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN	1436-3240
EISSN	1436-3259
出版年	2023
卷号	37 期号:2 页码:595-610
英文摘要	Quantifying the runoff uncertainty influenced by the climate drivers is essential for water resources management. Runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) originated from the ice and snow meltwater is, thus, sensitive to climate change due to its inherent uncertainties. In this paper, a hybrid mathematical model for uncertainty estimation combing the water-heat coupling model, sensitivity coefficient, uncertainty measurement indices, and an improving standard uncertainty method was proposed to quantify the runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers in the TRB from 1965 to 2015. The results showed that the runoff uncertainty in the TRB varies at different time scales and bears strong uncertainty in summer and autumn. In addition, runoff is sensitive to climate change, and when the annual precipitation, annual average temperature, and annual potential evapotranspiration factors change by 1%, the annual runoff changes by 2.8857%, 1.6559%, and -1.8857%, respectively, while the contribution rate of temperature to runoff changes gradually increases. When the changes in precipitation and temperature have the fluctuation uncertainties of 5.76-6.96% and 22.26-66.72%, the runoff fluctuation uncertainties influenced by climate drivers in the Hotan River Basin, Yarkand River Basin, Aksu River Basin, and Kaikong River Basin are 14.31%, 15.03%, 18.23%, and 5.93%, respectively. The proposed hybrid mathematical model can provide a quantitative analysis reference for the runoff uncertainty under climate change in inland river basins in the arid region of Northwest China.
英文关键词	Uncertainty Runoff Evaluation Climate drivers Tarim River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000835607000001
WOS关键词	TARIM RIVER-BASIN ; WATER-RESOURCES ; NORTHWEST CHINA ; ARID REGION ; PRECIPITATION ; SENSITIVITY ; XINJIANG ; RISK ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398723
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zuo, Jingping,Xu, Jianhua,Qian, Cuncun. A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers[J],2023,37(2):595-610.
APA	Zuo, Jingping,Xu, Jianhua,&Qian, Cuncun.(2023).A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,37(2),595-610.
MLA	Zuo, Jingping,et al."A hybrid mathematical model for estimation of runoff uncertainty influenced by climate drivers".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 37.2(2023):595-610.