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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165591
	Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis
	Wang, Tingting; Sun, Fubao
通讯作者	Wang, TT
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2023
卷号	900
英文摘要	The dynamic interplay between climate change and socioeconomic development has brought about significant changes in drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk within the global socioeconomic system. However, there is a prevailing lack of understanding about how these changes will manifest in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming. To address this knowledge gap, this study utilizes various climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic data from historical period and future projections to comprehensively map and assess the changes in global drought vulnerability and risk of population in the 2030s and 2050s under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 scenarios. This study finds that the future population at risk of drought is projected to increase by 21.96 % - 25.95 % in the 2030s and 36.64 % - 45.40 % in the 2050s, driven by rapid population growth and substantial changes in drought hazard and vulnerability. This includes varying increases in drought hazard in approximately 58 % of global land area, alongside decreases in drought vulnerability in 50 % - 80 % of global land areas. Most arid and semi-arid regions, including Africa, Central Asia, West Asia, and Australia with less developed economies, are more susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change, leading to significant increases in future drought hazards, vulnerability, and risk, particularly under higher emission scenarios. In contrast, most humid and semi-humid regions exhibit varying degrees of drought vulnerability and risk of population across regions, despite the overall increasing drought hazard, with disproportionate impact of climate change and socioeconomic development. Specifically, projected increases in drought vulnerability and risk are observed in the Amazon, central and western U.S., while decreases are projected in the eastern part of China delimited by the Hu Line, southern India, Japan, Korea, most of Southeast Asia, northern Europe, and South America excluding the Amazon. The eastern U.S. is expected to experience reduced vulnerability but increased drought risk. This study can assist decision makers to develop targeted strategies and measures of adaptation and mitigation in an increasingly globalized economy under global warming.
英文关键词	Drought risk Drought vulnerability index Drought hazard Population Climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001055054200001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SOCIAL VULNERABILITY ; AFRICA ; FRAMEWORK ; EXPOSURE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398549
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Tingting,Sun, Fubao. Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis[J],2023,900.
APA	Wang, Tingting,&Sun, Fubao.(2023).Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,900.
MLA	Wang, Tingting,et al."Integrated drought vulnerability and risk assessment for future scenarios: An indicator based analysis".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 900(2023).