干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model

Arid

DOI	10.3390/rs15163922
	Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model
	Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi; Chen, Yaning; Liang, Wenting; Zhang, Xueqi; Zhang, Qifei
通讯作者	Chen, YN
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
EISSN	2072-4292
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:16
英文摘要	Analyzing the future changes in runoff is crucial for efficient water resources management and planning in arid regions with large river systems. This paper investigates the future runoffs of the headwaters of the Tarim River Basin under different emission scenarios by forcing the hydrological model SWAT-Glacier using six regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Results indicate that compared to the period of 1976 similar to 2005, temperatures are projected to increase by 1.22 +/- 0.72 degrees C during 2036 similar to 2065 under RCP8.5 scenarios, with a larger increment in the south Tianshan mountains and a lower increment in the north Kunlun Mountains. Precipitation is expected to increase by 3.81 +/- 14.72 mm and 20.53 +/- 27.65 mm during 2036-2065 and 2066-2095, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario. The mountainous runoffs of the four headwaters that directly recharge the mainstream of the Tarim River demonstrate an overall increasing trend in the 21st century. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the runoff is projected to increase by 3.2% and 3.9% (amounting to 7.84 x 10(8) m(3) and 9.56 x 10(8) m(3)) in 2006-2035. Among them, the runoff of the Kaidu River, which is dominated by rainfall and snowmelt, is projected to present slightly decreasing trends of 3 similar to 8% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. For catchments located in the north Kunlun Mountains (e.g., the Yarkant and Hotan Rivers which are mix-recharged by glacier melt, snowmelt, and rainfall), the runoff will increase significantly, especially in summer due to increased glacier melt and precipitation. Seasonally, the Kaidu River shows a forward shift in peak flow. The summer streamflow in the Yarkant and Hotan rivers is expected to increase significantly, which poses challenges in flood risk management.
英文关键词	climate change CORDEX runoff changes trend prediction Tarim River Basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001056879800001
WOS关键词	HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES ; HEADWATER CATCHMENT ; BASIN ; MASS ; UNCERTAINTY ; STREAMFLOW
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398311
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fang, Gonghuan,Li, Zhi,Chen, Yaning,et al. Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model[J],2023,15(16).
APA	Fang, Gonghuan,Li, Zhi,Chen, Yaning,Liang, Wenting,Zhang, Xueqi,&Zhang, Qifei.(2023).Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model.REMOTE SENSING,15(16).
MLA	Fang, Gonghuan,et al."Projecting the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Tarim River Simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Glacier Model".REMOTE SENSING 15.16(2023).