干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin

Arid

DOI	10.3390/rs15123059
	Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin
	Kou, Jing; Wang, Jinjie; Ding, Jianli; Ge, Xiangyu
通讯作者	Ding, JL
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
EISSN	2072-4292
出版年	2023
卷号	15 期号:12
英文摘要	Exploring the future trends of land use/land cover (LULC) changes is significant for the sustainable development of a region. The simulation and prediction of LULC in a large-scale basin in an arid zone can help the future land management planning and rational allocation of resources in this ecologically fragile region. Using the whole Ili-Balkhash Basin as the study area, the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model and a combination of PLUS and Markov predictions (PLUS-Markov) were used to simulate and predict land use in 2020 based on the assessment of the accuracy of LULC classification in the global dataset. The accuracy of simulations and predictions using the model were measured for LULC data covering different time periods. Model settings with better simulation results were selected for simulating and predicting possible future land use conditions in the basin. The future predictions for 2025 and 2030, which are based on historical land change characteristics, indicate that the overall future spatial pattern of LULC in the basin remains relatively stable in general without the influence of other external factors. Over the time scale of the future five years, the expansion of croplands and barren areas in the basin primarily stems from the loss of grasslands. Approximately 48% of the converted grassland areas are transformed into croplands, while around 40% are converted into barren areas. In the longer time scale of the future decade, the conversion of grasslands to croplands in the basin is also evident. However, the expansion phenomenon of urban and built-up lands at the expense of croplands is more significant, with approximately 774.2 km(2) of croplands developing into urban and built-up lands. This work provides an effective new approach for simulating and predicting LULC in data-deficient basins at a large scale in arid regions, thereby establishing a foundation for future research on the impact of human activities on basin hydrology and related studies.
英文关键词	land use change simulation prediction PLUS model
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001016273300001
WOS关键词	FLUS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/398292
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kou, Jing,Wang, Jinjie,Ding, Jianli,et al. Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin[J],2023,15(12).
APA	Kou, Jing,Wang, Jinjie,Ding, Jianli,&Ge, Xiangyu.(2023).Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin.REMOTE SENSING,15(12).
MLA	Kou, Jing,et al."Spatial Simulation and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover in the Transnational Ili-Balkhash Basin".REMOTE SENSING 15.12(2023).