干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil

Arid

DOI	10.7717/peerj.14882
	Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil
	Goncalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro; Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira; Silva, Daniel Paiva; Gomes, Leticia Braga; Leao, Camila Ferreira; de Andrade, Andre Felipe Alves; Santos, Marcos Persio Dantas
通讯作者	Gonçalves, GSR
来源期刊	PEERJ
ISSN	2167-8359
出版年	2023
卷号	11
英文摘要	Background. Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.Methods. We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.Results. We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.
英文关键词	Climatic stability Conservation policy Dry forest Extinctions Gap analysis Protected areas
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000943827000004
WOS关键词	PROTECTED AREAS ; LAND-USE ; AVIAN THERMOREGULATION ; FUTURE CLIMATE ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; CONSEQUENCES ; PERFORMANCE ; DIVERSITY ; DESERTIFICATION ; PREDICTION
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397986
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Goncalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro,Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira,Silva, Daniel Paiva,et al. Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil[J],2023,11.
APA	Goncalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro.,Cerqueira, Pablo Vieira.,Silva, Daniel Paiva.,Gomes, Leticia Braga.,Leao, Camila Ferreira.,...&Santos, Marcos Persio Dantas.(2023).Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil.PEERJ,11.
MLA	Goncalves, Gabriela Silva Ribeiro,et al."Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil".PEERJ 11(2023).