干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A drought risk management system for early drought alert and proactive actions in large semi-arid areas

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11069-023-05943-w
	A drought risk management system for early drought alert and proactive actions in large semi-arid areas
	de Araujo Junior, Luiz Martins; de Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis; Barreto, Guilherme de Alencar; Camelo Cid, Daniel Antonio; de Araujo Pontes Filho, Joao Dehon
通讯作者	de Araujo, LM Jr
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
出版年	2023
卷号	117 期号:3 页码:2297-2324
英文摘要	Water supply systems risk collapsing during droughts, which can affect millions of people. To mitigate these risks, we developed a proactive drought management system that integrates climate, hydrological variables, and mathematical modeling. The proposed Integrated Information and Early Warning System for Drought (IIEWSD) includes three main components: monitoring, prediction, and action, which trigger short- and long-term mitigating actions. By analyzing historical and forecasted time series on precipitation, flow, and water volume, the IIEWSD provides a notion of the tendency to drought worsening. The prediction component uses dynamic and statistical methods and artificial neural networks to monitor and predict the drought status of each water system, allowing the estimation of transition probabilities and the anticipation of actions. With predicted information, decision-makers can anticipate actions before the worsening of the drought state. A risk aversion planning matrix was proposed to help decision-makers trigger mitigation actions and responses, avoiding regret in anticipation of actions. This matrix restricts the use of forecasted information to intensify mitigation and response actions while using monitored information to reduce those actions. The IIEWSD was applied to the urban supply system of Fortaleza, Brazil, a 4.1 million metropolitan region whose main water resources are in the semi-arid region. The results revealed that the system effectively estimated the probabilities of future drought states. Our approach enhances proactive drought planning and management by integrating the assessment of current and future drought states.
英文关键词	Drought states Drought forecasting Integrated information and early warning systems Probability
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:001188703100001
WOS关键词	CHANGING CLIMATE ; ENSEMBLES
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/397889
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	de Araujo Junior, Luiz Martins,de Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis,Barreto, Guilherme de Alencar,et al. A drought risk management system for early drought alert and proactive actions in large semi-arid areas[J],2023,117(3):2297-2324.
APA	de Araujo Junior, Luiz Martins,de Souza Filho, Francisco de Assis,Barreto, Guilherme de Alencar,Camelo Cid, Daniel Antonio,&de Araujo Pontes Filho, Joao Dehon.(2023).A drought risk management system for early drought alert and proactive actions in large semi-arid areas.NATURAL HAZARDS,117(3),2297-2324.
MLA	de Araujo Junior, Luiz Martins,et al."A drought risk management system for early drought alert and proactive actions in large semi-arid areas".NATURAL HAZARDS 117.3(2023):2297-2324.